Attention GOP Establishment: Herman Cain Is The Frontrunner, Now – Not Romney

The results of the latest Poll:  IBOPE Zogby Poll: Cain Trounces Romney in Head-to-Head Matchup:

Herman Cain trumps Mitt Romney in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, a new IBOPE Zogby Interactive survey finds, and he continues to lead the GOP field, although his numbers have slightly declined.

The interactive poll, conducted from Oct. 18-21, shows Romney leading Rick Perry and Ron Paul in separate head-to-head matchups. The survey also finds the endorsement of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie having no positive impact for Romney from GOP voters, but it does lead 34% to have a less favorable opinion of Christie compared to 10% being more favorable toward him.

Candidate %
Cain 63%
Romney 29%
I would not vote 4%
Not sure 5%

A Rocky Mountain Poll in Arizona also has Cain edging ahead of Romney 25% to 24%.

According to the survey, 25% of Arizona Republicans say if the state’s primary were held today, they would vote for Cain, a businessman, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, with 24% saying they would back Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who’s making his second bid for the White House. Cain’s one point margin is well within the survey’s sampling error.

Scott Wheeler explained the Cain surge at The Washington Times:

All over the country, I have had numerous people tell me over the past several months that if they could pick anyone out of the Re publican field to be president, it would be Herman Cain. Then they follow it up with this caveat: “But since he can’t win, I’m going with” so-and-so. (Insert the name of any other Republican here.)

Daniel Henninger wrote about similar observations in the Sept. 29 edition of the Wall Street Journal: “You hear the same thing said about Herman Cain all the time: Herman Cain has some really interesting ideas, but… .

“I love Herman Cain, but… .

“But what?

“But he can’t win.

“Why not?

“At best, the answer has to do with that cloudy word ‘electability.’ Or that Mr. Cain has never held elected political office,” Mr. Henninger writes.

But something happened in September that changed everything. After the Republican candidates debate in Orlando, Fla., in which many saw Mr. Cain as the winner, and the Florida straw poll that followed, which Mr. Cain won, people across the nation started seeing for the first time that their first choice to be president really had a chance of winning – a possibility the Republican base hasn’t seen for a long, long time.

As soon as people who were already predisposed to like him, saw that he actually had a chance, they jumped on board the Cain-train.

Gallup reported yesterday: Cain Catching Up With GOP Rivals in Recognition.

 Herman Cain is now recognized by 78% of Republicans nationwide, marking a gain of 28 percentage points since September and 57 points since March. This is the largest gain in recognition for any GOP presidential candidate Gallup has tracked this year, and puts him roughly on par with the other major candidates

Regardless of whether Cain ends up winning the Republican presidential nomination, he has accomplished the remarkable feat of moving from being relatively unknown among members of his own party nationwide to being recognized by almost 8 in 10.

Republicans have been relatively enthusiastic in their evaluations of Cain all year, and his Positive Intensity Scores for five weeks straight have topped the list. Cain’s score is down to 30 this week from 34 last week, but it remains more than twice as high as that of any other Republican tested.

***

About Three-Quarters of Republicans Who Know Cain View Him Favorably

Cain is in the enviable position of having the highest percentage of overall favorable opinions among Republicans and the lowest percentage of overall unfavorable opinions. Almost three-quarters have a broadly favorable view of Cain, and 16% have an unfavorable view. Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry are viewed unfavorably by 24% to 29% of Republicans who recognize them. Bachmann, Paul, and Huntsman are all viewed unfavorably by more than a third of Republicans who know them.

One reason for Cain’s increase in name recognition would be internet buzz created by campaign ads like “The Smoking man”

A perplexed New York Magazine wrote a post analyzing the ad:  Five Theories About the Bizarre New Herman Cain Campaign Ad:

4. The smoking scene was another way to signal that Cain is not your normal, focus-grouped, politically correct politician. His chief of staff will smoke a cigarette like he’s a rogue cop in a film noir, and he doesn’t care if the anti-tobacco groups or the liberal nanny-staters whine about it.

3. Herman Cain is trying to appeal to people like Mark Block. He’s white, he has a mustache, he has a Midwestern accent, and yes, he smokes cigarettes. In short, he looks and sounds like someone from the SNLDa Bears sketches. And he believes in Herman Cain. Come on in, working class Republicans — the water’s fine!

(He kinda reminded me of Father Guido Sarducci.)

I think this reason is closest to the mark:

2. The smoking scene guaranteed that the ad would become viral. The Cain campaign knew that the mainstream media would throw a hissy fit over the inclusion of cigarette in a campaign ad, and they were 100 percent correct! Look — we’re talking about it right now!

As tipster Charles B. notes, once voters know him, they like him. And they are looking for any excuse not to vote for Romney.

Tina Korbe said at Hot Air commenting on his new radio ad:

 Sheesh! No matter what he says, he sounds friendly saying it. A conservative in the cheerful mode of Ronald Reagan, indeed.

Ding ding ding!

UPDATE:

Okay, not to be a turd in my own punchbowl, but some Tweeps put me to some (not so great for Cain) knowledge:

Via National Review: Romney Leads in Iowa, N.H., S.C., and Fla.

The leads in SC and Iowa are within the margin of error. Cain clearly has some work to do in FL, (and he is), and we all know he won’t win in NH, so no need to worry about that.

The nationwide polling trend has been surging in Cain’s direction, and barring some unforeseen gaffetastophe – it will continue to do so.

Check out these latest polls:

Hermantum: “100% Pro-Life” Cain Leading In The Polls

Cain Leads New Ohio Poll; Close to Romney in Nevada; Perry Fading Away

Fox News Poll: GOP Primary Voters Get on the Cain Train

SEE ALSO:

Romney receives the KISS OF DEATH:

Romney Secures McCain Endorsement

MORE:

This should help Cain on the foreign policy front:

FP:Exclusive: Inside Herman Cain’s new foreign policy team

MORE:

Rush Limbaugh had a message to the GOP establishment, today:

“The circumstances that led to that landslide defeat for Democrats in 2010 have not changed. There is no reason for the Tea Party to have dissipated. There is no reason for the Tea Party to have lost energy and they haven’t, but every effort is being made to make people think so. That the Tea Party was a one-election-wonder and now they are back to their mom and pop stores and they had their one little fling with politics and now its over and the Tea Party doesn’t exist. That’s wishful thinking, but it isn’t the case; and so the days of Conservative Republicans…. settling are over.”

Hat tip: Charles B.

Linked by Doug Ross, thanks!

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15 thoughts on “Attention GOP Establishment: Herman Cain Is The Frontrunner, Now – Not Romney

  1. Pingback: Romney Secures McCain Endorsement : The Other McCain

  2. FOX:

    Cain has sometimes appeared to be in over his head. Consider what’s happened over the past week:

    –He suggested electrifying a fence along the U.S. border with Mexico to kill illegal immigrants trying to enter the United States. Cain later called it a joke and apologized if anyone was offended by the remarks.

    –He said he would negotiate for the release of U.S. prisoners held by terrorists, then reversed himself and said he had misunderstood the question.

    –He muddied the water on abortion. He told CNN that while he strongly opposes abortion, “the government shouldn’t be trying to tell people everything to do, especially when it comes to social decisions that they need to make.” He later issued a statement reiterating his opposition to abortion.

    –Amid criticism that his 9-9-9 tax overhaul would force the majority of Americans to pay more to the government, he reworked the plan to exclude the poorest people and to allow some deductions. Backers of Cain’s original plan had praised its simplicity, and carving out exceptions could erode that support.

    ME: CONSERVATIVES WHO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS MAN BECLOWN THEMSELVES.

    999 IS NOW 999/909 WITH ALL SORTS OF CAVEATS. PRETTY SOON IT WILL HAVE 9,000,000 WORDS!

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  3. Pingback: Herman Cain Sure is On a Roll! | Herman Cain PAC

  4. Herman Cain, minor gaffes and all, has what we need, it is what Reagan had and nobody else in the GOP field aside from Newt Gingrich has – a sunny disposition and a can do attitude along with a deep and abiding love for this country and her people, ALL of her people, not just the ones who they can get something out of, Obama has none of those things. Herman, not Obama, has the life story which is an inspiring narrative that shows that ANYONE can make it in this country if they are willing to try and do the hard work to succeed! His smile is infectious, you feel better after a Herman speech, like America might actually have a bright future back in our realm of possibilities again, and if he gets a smart and congenial guy like Newt for his running mate, the Cain Train will be unstoppable. Herman is one of those old fashioned Christians who carries the love of Jesus in his heart, you can feel it, you can see it in how he talks to people, even opponents, he is never a jerk. That is important.

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  5. We all know that the GOP old boy club wants Mitt for brains bad. Their attack dog Karl Rove has all but said that directly. So what is our real recourse when they suddenly pick Mitt, when by all trends, Mr Cain will be polling at DOUBLE what Mitt gets? Can we try a mass protest outside GOP offices nationwide? How do we get to the core string pullers in the GOP and let them know, in no uncertain terms, that we will not stand for that sort of shady stuff again this time, after the embarrasing pic of McCain in ’08?

    Like

  6. Cain is a joke, once again I will tell you how serious it is that Cain is even being looked at. The man has no idea what he is doing, and he is nothing more than an establishment shill. Now they made him to help Romney, but they are having trouble destroying him in vauge terms, but they will when they need to. They love Cain because he is big government just like them. He is a blue blood moderate, but he pretends to be something else, when he gets causght, he changes his positions and blames it on everyone else. His bubble will burst, and it should. We do not need another on the job training president, we need bold reform, and to push Washington back 30 years. Perry’s plan does that, Perry does not change his positions when the media freaks out. He is the only real candidate in the whole bunch, but so many people allow the media to dictate what they want, so they are choosing one of two empty suits.

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  7. Tim, who are you kidding? Cain has the brains, and the temerity, to get the job done as POTUS. Cain is big govt?? Cain is not even a politican, unlike your hero Perry. Empty suit?? Umm, did you not notice what Cain has done over his life?? You have it all bass ackwards I am afraid. I will admit, I would like to see Perry get the nod ONLY if Cain does not. Look at what he did, he is a follower, Perry had to come up with SOME sort of tax plan after Cain’s success with his 999 plan with the Conservatives.

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  8. I can’t vote for Cain if he get the nominee in 2012. I don’t think Cain is conservative enough and he does have a ‘lack’ of inexperience and leadership just like Obama.

    Like

  9. Jeeze, another “Conservative”. So M, you know what THAT attitude got us in 2008 don’t you? What do you want, to get the founding father’s DNA and clone one of them to run for 2012?

    Like

  10. I’ve noticed in the last few days that the knock on Cain isn’t “electability,” it’s “he’s not a serious candidate.”

    Yeah, right. Like Obhammud is?

    Obhammud may be serious about destroying the nation, and taking vacations, but not a whole bunch else. At least Herm loves the country.

    Like

  11. No, he is the first true conservative (along with Newt) who actually has a chance of securing the GOP nomination since 1984,

    As far as 2008 was concerned, there was no “conservative”. Just a bitter old man, who was Ted Kennedy’s best buddy and was to the left of Nixon.

    As for real conservatives, 2010 was just a dress rehearsal. i am glad that Limbaugh etc., are finally getting it, two years late. I have been preaching since early 2009 that the Dems are electorally dead and also that all pre-2008 campaign strategy and thinking are out the window. It is a brave new world and the rules have totally changed. However, neither party seems to realize this just yet.

    As for who will get the nomination, my money is on Newt. He has kept the focus on Obama, has avoided the Jerry Springer-like crap flinging we have seen from the other candidates and is slowly, but steadily, moving up the polls. All of this is to his benefit, as he is the only one who has been through the Washington Wringer and he knows how the game is played, And remember, McCain’s campaign was broke, losing staff and was polling at 1% in August 2007. Eight months later, he was the GOP nominee.

    To quote Flemeth from Dragon Age, “Only fools forgot history.”

    Like

  12. It’s driving me crazy the way the establishment – Republican establishment as well as liberal establishment – has been annointing Romney as the best candidate for a year now. It stimulates my conspiracy warning bells. We don’t have much time left to rescue individual freedom in this country, and I think Romeny is the guy the statists think will preserve their gains.

    Like

  13. Pingback: Larwyn’s Linx: If I were a liberal … | My Blog

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