Why do people give PPP polls any credibility?
For some reason this latest PPP poll has been getting buzz:
PPP’s first national poll of 2012 finds Barack Obama with his best standing against Mitt Romney since last May, right after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama leads Romney 49-44.
As always, you have to look at the breakdown of who was polled:
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat
41%
………………………………………………..
Republican 35%
………………………………………………
24%
Independent/Other…………………………………..
Now -wouldn’t you expect a good outcome for Obama in a poll that over samples Democrats?
As Karl at Hot Air notes:
Obama does not break 50%, despite PPP’s sample containing 41% Democrats — a couple of points higher than Dem turnout in 2008, let alone 2004 or 2000.
Moreover, a recent Rasmussen poll showed Democrat party ID at an all time low:
During December, 35.4% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.3% in November and just below the high for the year of 35.6% reached in May.
At the same time, just 32.7% of adults said they were Democrats, down from 34.9% in November. The previous low for Democrats was 33.0% in August of this year.
This is not as great a result for Obama as agenda driven pollsters want you to believe.
Keep that in mind throughout the campaign season. We’ll be seeing many more examples of the scales tipped in Obama’s favor, and not only from PPP.
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