Poll Watch: Mitt Romney’s Leading in Swing States

What’s the best way to know what libs have up their sleeves? Pay attention to what they accuse others of doing.

Traveling to campaign in Virginia from Washington today, President Obama‘s team said the news media wants a “comeback kid story” for Mitt Romney.

“We know there are going to be twists and turns and ups and downs in this campaign,” Obama press secretary Jen Psaki told news media aboard Air Force One. “We know we’ll have them in the next 40 days as well. campaign we know we’ll have them it in the next 40 days as well. Mitt Romney has set it up and his team have set it up where they want the debate to be that moment for him. They fully expect that moment is going to be their turning point. We know people want to write a comeback kid story, so we’ll see if that happens.”

Well, who’s the “Comeback Kid” in the media narrative, right now?

Dana Perino called it back in June.

She said Team Obama wanted to be the underdog in this election, and it looked like they were getting their wish. But  she also said to watch for stories starting in July that would herald Obama’s amazing recovery – how he was getting his groove back, etc.

Well, it’s coming a little later than expected, perhaps because Obama was having so many bad weeks/months in a row, the narrative just wasn’t tenable until now. The ObamaMedia has been working overtime to paint Romney as a “gaaaaaffe” prone, out of touch, rich white guy who doesn’t pay his fair share. And they think now is the time to go in for the kill. Romney’s 47% “gaffe” is causing him to lose ground to the comeback kid, is their story and they’re sticking to it..

Remember how al-Reuters covered Romney’s massive 7,000+ person rally in Colorado, last weekend? : Romney tries to put “47%” gaffe to bed with focus on jobs .  That got my attention: Shameless, ObamaZombie Media Reaching New Heights in Hackery.

Now here’s Rush Limbaugh on his show,today: Obama and Media Coordinate to Attach the “47% Video” to Romney’s Supposedly Falling Poll Numbers:

RUSH: Now, Obama is in Virginia, he’s got a campaign appearance going, and he just told a whopper.  Grab sound bite five, by the way.  He just told a whopper to the crowd.  And, by the way, let’s play sound bite five.  This is what has caused this big change.  The Romney video where he claimed that 47% of the voters are just beyond his reach, they don’t pay taxes or whatever, you remember the video from May at a fundraiser. Obama has latched on to that to now try to talk about the people of this country as great, hardworking, stick-to-it, self-reliant, rugged individuals.

Obama has done a 180.  I’m here to tell you that what this campaign is doing is not representative of a campaign that thinks this election is over and that they have it locked up.  He is in states that the polls tell us he’s leading by ten to 12 points.  He is now making campaign statements, trying to put words in Romney’s mouth that Romney has denigrated people as a bunch of victims and Obama is now becoming the champion of entrepreneurs and rugged individuals?  And this isn’t gonna fly anywhere because nobody believes that.

***

So they’ve decided at the Obama campaign to defend the hardworking people that Romney is attacking. This is a campaign that does not have a core message that it’s locked into.  It’s hop scotching all over the place, and now they think this one might work.  I’m telling you, feel free to disagree with me, I guess I could be wrong about this, but this strikes me as a campaign in disarray.  I know that’s what they’re saying about the Romney campaign.  But I think it’s the Obama campaign that’s not well-oiled and not a smooth running machine.  The very idea it takes ‘em a week to gin up a coordinated response with the media on this 47%, and then they have to makeup what Romney meant, put words in his mouth. And now here’s Obama whose existence is based on victims, Obama’s reason for existing as a politician is to help victims and make even more of ‘em.  That’s what a community organizer does.

A community organizer makes people feel like they’re victims.  He tells them they’re victims.  A community organizer tells people they’re getting dumped on, that they’re getting the shaft, that they’re getting the screw by The Man, by the elite, by the rich. And now all of a sudden Obama’s out, (imitating Obama) “There aren’t any victims. They are hardworking people.  The way you get ahead in this country is hard work.”  No, it’s not.  If you work hard and you become successful, you are a target of this administration.  You’re gonna be paying higher taxes. You’re the reason that there’s poverty.  You’re the reason that there’s despair.

You are the reason, you small business owners that are perceived to have loads and loads of money, you know it as well as I do, in Obama’s world, you’re the reason we have this bad economy, you and Bush.  You’re not hiring people.  You’re hoarding all of your money.  You’ve got it.  You’re just not hiring.  You’re greedy.  This has been Obama’s whole message, and now all of a sudden — here, we got a media montage yesterday, last night, and this morning, of a bunch of media people, State-Controlled Media, tying this 47% video of Romney to these polls and trying to explain this is why Romney’s plunging.

Here’s his Obama Media montage:

ALLEN:  New polls show Ohio slipping away after Romney talking disparagingly about the 47%.

MUIR:  Romney described 47% of Americans as victims.

CRAWFORD:  Romney is still shadowed by “it’s not my job to worry about the 47%.”

MORGAN:  The 47%  fiasco.

REICH:  In response to that 47% video.

STODDARD: The potency of the 47% video.

CAVUTO: Mitt Romney, the 47 thing.

TUCKER:  This 47% remark so absolutely devastating for him.

CARDONA: He’s denigrating 47% of the American electorate.

STEINHAUSER:  Those controversial 47% comments.

GUTHRIE:  Repair the damage from the 47% comment.

SILVER:  Since Romney’s 47% comments Obama’s gotten a second wind.

Yeah, yeah, yeah…HERE’s your “second wind”, drones:

Rasmussen (R) 2012 Daily Swing State Presidential Tracking Poll
 
Including “Leaners”

  • Mitt Romney 48%
  • Barack Obama 47%

Not Including “Leaners”

  • Mitt Romney 46%
  • Barack Obama 46% 
  • Some other candidate 4%
  • Undecided 5%

Survey of approximately 1,300 likely voters was conducted September 20-26, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. The swing state poll covers 11 key states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Inside the numbers:

The president’s Job Approval in the swing states is currently at 48%. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These figures include 28% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.

DaTechGuy analyzes RCP’s right track/wrong track numbers.

Right now the MSM is running a ton of polls with huge Democrat skews yet take a look at the results at the end of the chart for today:

56.3 vs 37.6 Wrong track over right track that’s a spread of 18.7 and consider this: The CBS/NYT poll and the NBC/WSJ poll, the two polls that are the most skewed have a wrong track/right track numbers of -19 & -16 respectively.

Think about that: Even with a sample that couldn’t favor Obama more if they were paid employees of the white house they can’t even get a gap of less that 10 pts let alone a favorable number.

***

VDH notes how few votes it would have taken to make 1980 a Carter victory:

In other words, until the very last week of the campaign, Reagan had an uphill fight. True, he eventually won a landslide victory in the Electoral College (489 to 49) and beat Carter handily in the popular vote. Yet Reagan only received a 51-percent majority.

What had saved Reagan from a perfect storm of negative factors — gaffes, additional conservative candidates on the ballot, a single debate, and a biased media — was not just the debate. Voter turnout was relatively low at only 53 percent. If Reagan’s conservative base was united and energized, Carter’s proved divided and indifferent.

John Nolte of Big Journalism: To Help Democrats, the Media’s Been Lying About Swing State Polls Since 1980:

How Carter Beat Reagan:

So what do we have here?

What we have is the liberal “paper of record” systematically presenting the 1980 Reagan-Carter election in 9 “Crucial States” as somehow “close” in five of the nine — Texas, Illinois, Ohio, Florida and Michigan. New York was in the bag for Carter. Only in his own California and New Jersey was Reagan clearly leading.

The actual results had only New York “close” — with Reagan winning by 2. Reagan carried every other “close” state by a minimum of 6 points and as much 17 — Florida. Florida, in fact, went for Reagan by a point more than California and about 4 more than New Jersey.

How could the New York Times — its much ballyhooed polling data and all of its resulting stories proclaiming everything to be “close” — been so massively, continuously wrong? In the case of its “Crucial States” — nine out of nine times?

Remember, in order to buy today’s media polling, you have to believe Romney has shored up his base and is winning Independents, but still losing because Obama’s going to match or best the extraordinary party advantage he enjoyed during the perfect storm of 2008.

Poll apologists just say they believe the polls. What they’re really saying, though, and can’t defend, is that during a bad economy and all the Middle East unrest, Obama’s going to win a record turnout advantage.

Zombie: The Five False Assumptions Behind Poll-Skewing:

The Purpose of Poll-Skewing

Each side has defined for itself an ultimate goal. Obama’s supporters in the media and online strive incessantly to demonstrate and publicize that Obama is ahead in the polls. Romney’s supporters strive to demonstrate that those polls are skewed, since the published totals are “weighted” (i.e. arbitrarily distorted) to match statistics about past voter behavior that are no longer true.

Now, if you had just landed on Earth from another galaxy, you likely would be very confused about this behavior on the part of the poll-wrestlers. Presuming there is such a thing as objective reality, there must be a certain true percentage of people who support each candidate — so what purpose is served by intentionally misrepresenting that reality if, at the end of the campaign, that misrepresentation will be trumped by an actual vote? Isn’t the purpose of polls to reveal a snapshot of how things really stand?

Oh you naive extraterrestrials, we reply. Originally, yes, polls were meant to document reality, but nowadays polls are designed to mold reality. If two candidates are in truth currently tied, but we announce that one of them is in the lead, then on election day he will actually win, because our false poll reporting affected how people vote. Get it?

UPDATE:

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Presidential Survey

With Poll sample +8 Democrat

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 26%

The results show Obama winning by 6:

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Presidential Poll

  • Barack Obama 50% [50%] (48%) {47%} [50%] (49%) {50%} [46%] (45%) {46%} [46%] (44%)
  • Mitt Romney 44% [45%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (42%) {41%}[46%] (43%) {42%} [40%] (42%)

Among Independents

  • Mitt Romney 51% [46%] (39%) {42%} [40%] (40%) {45%} [46%] (43%) {44%} [39%] (40%)
  • Barack Obama 34% [44%] (49%) {42%}[43%](45%) {39%} [35%] (38%) {34%} [37%] (34%)

Among Men

  • Mitt Romney 50% [48%] (48%) {48%} [50%] (49%) {47%} [54%] (44%) {50%} [47%] (47%)
  • Barack Obama 43% [46%] (44%) {41%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [38%] (42%) {43%} [38%] (37%)

Among Women

  • Barack Obama 55% [53%] (52%) {52%} [55%] (54%) {54%} [53%] (47%) {49%} [52%] (51%)
  • Mitt Romney 39% [43%] (43%) {41%} [36%] (36%) {36%} [38%] (43%) {35%} [35%] (37%)

Obama is losing Independents…

UPDATE:

The Iowa Republican reports that Romney is leading in the latest (unskewed) poll:

The stories of Mitt Romney’s demise in Iowa may be exaggerated.  While the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll results have caused NBC to move Iowa from being a toss-up to a lean Democrat state, a new TIR-Voter/Consumer Research poll suggests otherwise.  The poll of registered voters conducted between September 23rd and September 25th shows Romney with a one-point lead over President Obama in Iowa.

Respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the election for president were held today.   Forty-seven percent chose Republican Mitt Romney, while 46 percent said Democrat Barack Obama.   Two percent said neither, one percent refused to answer, and only four percent of respondents were undecided.

The poll is significantly different from last week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll that showed Obama leading Romney by eight points, or the most recent Public Policy Polling poll that had Obama’s lead at seven points in the state.

The major difference between the polls could be attributed to the political make up of the sample.  Public Policy Polling’s Iowa sample was comprised of 37 percent-identified Democrats, 33 percent of identified Republicans, and 27 percent of identified independent or no-party voters.  The TIR/VCR poll was comprised of 36 percent registered Republicans, 35 percent registered Democrats, and 30 percent no-party voters.

Keep in mind, there are now roughly 20,000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than registered Democrats.

September 24, 2012 4:20 P.M.

This news release – announcing that there are now roughly 20,000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than registered Democrats –

suggests that Hawkeye state Republicans can crow about a dramatic turnaround, pointing out that back in January 2009, Iowa Democrats enjoyed a 110,000 voter registration advantage.

For what it’s worth:

WH Insider said this December 2011: Heads Up – The Cook The Books Campaign Is Underway:

Not sure if you are abroad or not but wanted to get this message to you so you know what to specifically watch out for in the coming weeks and months.  Got word there is a comprehensive polling and economic data program about ready to be launched via some administration operatives and particular media outlets.  Big time cooking the books on this polling data they will be pushing out there soon.

Told Wapo will be one of if not the first.  Urge you to read beyond the polling headline and you will find the facts behind the numbers.  All campaigns attempt to do this kind of thing, but nobody gets away with it as much as the Obama administration.  It will prove to be a huge obstacle for whoever the GOP nominee is. And this is just the start.

These polls are fabrications intended to shape public opinion.  They are not reflections of public opinion.  That make sense?  The poll itself will be regurgitated to other secondary media.  That is how we did it over and over again in 2007 and 2008.  We used the polling to work against Hillary, and then we used the same platform of tricks to use against and paralyze the McCain campaign.

Linked by Doug Ross, thanks!

You have to find the actual polling data.  It will be buried but you can find it easy enough once you figure out the links.  Then go back and compare to previous polling and you’ll note the shift. That shift is proof of the dishonesty of the media.  At least some of them.  The Obama people fed them the request, and these polls will be used to paint the picture.

Hat tip: Charles B.

Poll Watch: “All the Signs Point to a Big REPUBLICAN Voter Enthusiasm Advantage in this Election”

Eric Allie cartoon via Townhall

To combat the massive amounts of polling high jinks going on, right now, Poll Watch is going to be a regular feature here until the election.

First, here’s the always optimistic Dick Morris, last night on Hannity. Listen to him snap “I can!” when Sean Hannity opens the segment saying, “I can’t predict what will happen November 6th.” He goes on to predict, “if the Election was held today Romney Would Win by 4-5 Points…”

John Giokaris of Townhall, a Chicago-based political operative with five years of experience in law and journalism, explains what’s going on with all the skewed polling.

The liberal mainstream media and blogosphere are desperately trying to write Romney’s funeral using polls that oversample Democrats by as much a D+10, D+11 and D+13. In 2008, an historic election wave for Democrats, the electorate was D+7. In 2004, when George W. Bush won re-election, the electorate was evenly split. In other words, D+0. So was the 2010 midterm election: evenly split. The Democrat share of the electorate is not going to double this year. Given the well-noted enthusiasm edgefor Republicans this year, the electorate is going to be far closer to the 2004 and 2010 models than 2008. Any poll trying to replicate the 2008 is going to artificially inflate Obama’s support.

But as pollster John McLaughlin explains, “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR (Interactive Voice Response) polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are ‘not enthusiastic’ to vote or non voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30% range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this.”

A certain pundit on this site (guess who?) provided a link to some web site claiming that a national average of 2012 election polls (without citing which ones specifically) shows Obama leading Romney in several key states when excluding Rasmussen polls, implying Rasmussen has a Republican bias. What they fail to mention is that a Fordham University study concluded that Rasmussen had been the most accurate pollster throughout the 2008 election (and that was Obama’s goodyear).

I could just as easily provide a link to another website that claims to unskew the polls’ oversampling of Democrats to show that Romney actually leads Obama (and they even list which specific ones). But whether you look at Rasmussen, which has been accused of leaning right, Gallup, which has been accused of leaning left, both are showing the same thing: this race is virtually tied.

Another conservative poll watcher, Brian Cates of Draw and Strike! explains the familiar pattern of skewed polling in the weeks and months before an election.

During the Spring and Summer months leading up to the fall, Mainstream media pollsters try to shape the campaign news and drive a narrative with their polls.  To accomplish this, they do funky things with the numbers.

Note that in the past few weeks in polls taken since the beginning of September, 11 of those pollsters shown above in that chart had a sample in their poll that was +4 Democratic or greater.  6 of them expect an electorate on Nov. 6th that is +7 Democrat or greater.  And 3 of them expect Democrats to outvote Republicans by +10 points or more.

Now in 2008, Democrats DID outvote Republicans by +7.  That was a historic wave election for the Democratic party; you’d have to go back decades to find another election where Democrats outvoted Republicans by anything like that kind of number.  Usually the partisan split between Dems and Repubs is pretty damn close, and if it’s not tied within the margin of error, it’s between a +1 or a +3 advantage to whichever party gets the upper hand.  So +7 was pretty damn eye-opening in 2008.

Despite the fact that a lot has changed since 2008, many of these MSM pollsters are using a 2008 template for their polls. That is, they are presuming a huge Democratic voter enthusiasm advantage that pushes the Democratic vote to another big advantage over the Republican vote.  They are assuming Republicans are going to be outrepresented in the actual electorate that votes on November 6 by at least +4 or more.

However, all the signs point to a big REPUBLICAN voter enthusiasm advantage in this election.
***

Right now Romney is winning that Independent vote by a considerable margin.  To make up for this, the MSM pollsters are undersampling Indies and Republicans in their polls and blowing up the Democrats in their samples, sometimes to ABSURD sizes, such as the ABC/News, Reuters, and Democracy Corp polls in that chart at the top of the page.  +7 was a historic turnout for Democrats, yet some of these pollsters desperate to keep Obama way ahead of Romney are claiming a Democratic electorate of +10 or +11.

These MSM pollsters KNOW what the actual numbers are. Which is why they are in full-blown panic mode the past month and a half, trying to convince anyone who will listen to them that Romney’s lost already.  They are seeking to dampen Republican voting enthusiasm because they know if Republicans turn out, it’s over.  Their guy, their shining Prince, will lose.

John Nolte, Big Journalism: JUICED: PRO-OBAMA POLLS RELY ON RECORD DEM TURNOUT:

If you’re going to believe the polls released from CBS/New York Times this morning — you know, the polls the media’s currently using to beat Romney senseless and to depress Republican enthusiasm, you have to believe that the turnout advantage for Democrats over Republicans will blow away every previous record and common sense.

It’s that simple. Because these polls are not only telling us that Romney is losing OH, PA, and FL by insurmountable margins; these polls are also telling us that Democrat turnout is projected to blow away every modern record.

But these media polls don’t headline what they’re seeing as far as the Democrat turnout advantage because no one would believe it. In fact, no one believes Obama will match the D+7 nationwide advantage he enjoyed in 2008. And no one certainly believes he will surpass it.

Oh, except this non-stop litany of media polls being wielded like weapons by the corrupt media.

Via AoSHQ, Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard affirms that  Yes, Most Polls (The Ones The Media Prefers) Are Giving Obama a Phantom 3-4 Point Edge

Obama is only even with Romney with Independents, and many Independents remain undecided. The only way, then, Obama can have a healthy lead is if he is getting much more out of his base than Romney is out of his own, a historically dubious proposition.

He does not mention the old rule — which actually isn’t a very strong rule — that remaining undecideds will break for the challenger. It should be noted that this rule really isn’t one, which is why I don’t think he mentions it.

That said: In this election, if the constant media fawning over Obama, and his overexposure, haven’t convinced you to support him, I just don’t think you’re going to wind up voting for him.

2. Currently the polls show the Democratic base being more unified than the Republican base — that is, there are more Republican defectors, away from Romney, than Democratic defectors, away from Obama.

Cost doesn’t even question this based on common sense (that is, given that Obama is presiding over a Depression at least partly of his making). He just looks at historical party unity numbers– in previous elections, the Republicans were more solid for the Republican candidate that the Democrats were for their own. Ergo, he finds the current situation indicated by polls — that Obama is more popular with Democrats than Romney is with Republicans — either wrong as of the moment or possibly correct at the moment but unlikely to persist.

Rush Limbaugh warned conservatives about the biased polling, on his show, today:Don’t Let Bogus Polls Depress You:

It’s a roller coaster. It is. This is why… I talked about it yesterday. Why do you think so many people in this country are stupid? ‘Cause of polls like this! Obama’s leading Romney in Ohio on a question of who’s better suited to run the US economy for the first time in the campaign? Why does that make any sense? How does that make any sense at all? The economy’s getting worse! So this effort to suppress your vote and depress you at the same time, folks? They’re ratcheting it up.

(I said essentially same thing on Twitter, yesterday:)

They’re trying to wrap this up before the debates even start, because I think they’re worried about the debates. I think they’re trying to get this election finished and in the can by suppressing your vote and depressing you so that you just don’t think there’s any reason to vote, that it’s hopeless. They want you making other plans. We are told that according to the latest New York Times/Quinnipiac/CBS News poll, Obama is leading Romney by nine points in Florida, by ten points in Ohio, and by 12 points in Pennsylvania.

All among likely voters.

If that’s true, it’s over. If that’s true, it’s over, because there’s no way to recover that kind of ground in the number of days left. So the question is: Is this true? Is it anywhere near true? Well, the pollsters will all tell you, “What’s in it for us to be wrong?” But, folks, these pollsters can massage the sample in any number of ways to get what they want out of a given poll, and they will always be able to go back and say, “According to that sample, our poll was right on the money.”

Open your eyes – it’s beyond obvious, now what their doing.

The Examiner: Don’t trust presidential race polling data, says conservative PAC:

There are now only six weeks until the all-important presidential election and the news and entertainment media are working very hard to cover for Obama — whether it be about his failures on jobs and the economy, or his failures in foreign policy including the loss of a U.S. ambassador, claim officials from the Campaign to Defeat Obama in a report on Monday.

In an attempt to discourage Republicans, especially conservatives, from going to the polls the denizens of American newsrooms keep suggesting that the Romney/Ryan ticket is finished, and point to their own polls to show how great Obama is doing in this campaign, according to the report, say the CDO officials.

“Recall the 2004 election between incumbent President George W. Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry: Several polls showed Kerry edging out Bush on election day. The media told the country beginning at 5:00 p.m. on the East Coast that exit polls showed Kerry beating Bush by a wide margin. Well, we know what happened that night,” said political strategist Mike Baker.

“And why did the media tell the nation Kerry was winning when he eventually lost? Because they hoped Republican voters wouldn’t bother voting,” Baker said.

“In fact, the only talk show host to tell Republicans not to believe the polls and go out and vote was former Justice Department chief of staff Mark Levin,” noted Baker.

DaTechGuy has been on top of the skewed polling, all year:

…with a sample that is D+9 in Florida, Barack Obama has a +9 lead on Mitt Romney! In Ohio with a D+9 Sample Obama has a +10 Lead and in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample he has +12 lead.
Now I have absolutely no trouble believing these states are close nor to I disagree that Mitt Romney should be more aggressive but come ON guys?
***
By an odd coincidence the last time this poll came out Hugh Hewett questioned Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polls and asked him about this (emphasis mine):

***
HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?

PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.

HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.

PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.

Mind you this is the guy who actually does the poll saying this

Let me close with this bit from the American Spectator and an exchange between Ben Bradlee and Ed Rollins from 2004

A few weeks later, the Washington Post ran a story that confirmed Rollins’ initial beliefs. The Post confessed that… well… oops… it had made a mistake with those California polling numbers. Shortly afterward came the November election, with California once again giving Reagan a more than 16 point victory. In fact, Reagan carried 49 states, winning the greatest landslide victory in presidential history while losing Minnesota in — yes — a close race. Mondale had 49.72% to Reagan’s 49.54%, a difference of .18% that might have been changed by all that money that went into California. Making Reagan the first president in history to win all fifty states.

After the [2004] election, Ed Rollins ran into the Washington Post’s blunt-speaking editor Ben Bradlee and “harassed” Bradlee “about his paper’s lousy polling methodology.”

Bradlee’s “unrepentant” response?

“Tough sh…t, Rollins, I’m glad it cost you plenty. It’s my in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”

Let’s be blunt…we’re dealing with damn,  dirty, scheming libs who, as we all know by now, (say it with me) “wake up every morning and ask themselves, how can we fool them, today?”

Here’s where the only poll that matters has the race:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide. 

When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 48% and Obama 46%.  

Via Charles B., some sweet polling news from Iowa.

Obama expands Iowa lead to 7 points
Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7
points in the state, 51-44. Obama’s advantage has increased by 5 points since PPP’s last
poll of the state in late August when he led just 47-45.
The biggest change in the last month has been significant
Wait – how’s that good news – Obama’s winning!
It’s a PPP poll, silly: IOWA  PARTY ID           D+4
Democrat (34%)            Republican  (33%)
Democrat (31%)            Republican  (35%)

This news release – announcing that there are now roughly 20,000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than registered Democrats – suggests that Hawkeye state Republicans can crow about a dramatic turnaround, pointing out that back in January 2009, Iowa Democrats enjoyed a 110,000 voter registration advantage.

In terms of how many voters are registered with each major party, Democrats continue to hold advantages in several key swing states, but in all of those states, their advantage is considerably smaller than it was in 2008.

UPDATE:

The Right Scoop: TRIFECTA puts the election in perspective: Why does the media think Obama is winning?

Via CDBO Headquarters:

Dick Morris, Karl Rove & Scott Rasmussen were on Fox News Channel tonight and they articulated the message that we’ve been trying to convey to you for weeks.  Don’t believe the major media polls.  They are wrong.  They are deliberately over-sampling Democrats, and it is adding several bogus points to Barack Obama’s numbers in the polls.

The media is doing this to depress conservatives – hoping that you will stop contributing to the campaign against Obama, that you won’t volunteer at the local Republican Victory Center, and that you’ll hopefully stay home on Election Day.  Don’t let the media get away with this shameful behavior!

The good people at Breitbart.com have produced further evidence to show you the bias in the polling, again – being done to trick you into thinking Obama has already won.  Below is a review of the latest polls taken among Ohio voters.  Here’s what is fascinating:  over the past four years, Democrats have turned out more of their voters to the polls than Republicans by a 1% margin.  You read that right – just 1%.  Yet, as the team at Breitbart.com just discovered, the polls being reported in the media showing Obama with this supposedly big lead do so only because they weighted the poll to have a 6%-10% Democrat turnout advantage:

Do you want to know what the truth is?  The truth is that the race in Ohio is a dead heat, and that’s why the media and the Obama campaign are working so hard to convince you not to contribute, volunteer and vote.

Don’t let them win!  We ask that you please make a contribution to The Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama.  You can contribute as little as $5 up to the maximum allowed contribution of $5,000.  Please, contribute online – HERE.
UPDATE II:
Karl Rove broke out his white board on O’Reilly, tonight: Rove: Romney Is Winning Republicans and Independents & Media Has Him Down 9 Points
UPDATE: III:
More great stuff via Charles B:

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey     Barack Obama 52%      Mitt Romney 43%        D+9

Party registration:                                            Democrat; 50%                            Republican  37%                    D+13
2008 Pennsylvania EXIT POLL PARTY ID               Democrat 44%)                               Republican  (37%)                     D+7
2010 Pennsylvania EXIT POLL PARTY ID               Democrat 40%)                               Republican  (37%)                     D+3
2012 Pennsylvania GALLUP PARTY ID ( adults )     Democrat 46%)                               Republican  (51%)                     D+5
PA is in PLAY.

Linked by Michelle Malkin, and Doug Ross, thanks!

Posted in polls. 28 Comments »
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