A couple of commenters, (Jackstraw and Muslihoon), whose opinions I value, believe that the recent Al Qaida videotapes of OBL, who…(I’m going out on a limb, here), is probably dead, and Zawahri, are meant to inspire and rally the jihadi fighters in Pakistan in the aftermath of the fall of the Red Mosque. In other words, they don’t believe the videotapes were meant as a warning, or trigger for attacks here in the U.S., or elsewhere in the west.
The most crucial fight in the GWOT just may be going on in Pakistan right now, as the islamofascists fight government forces who are finally cracking down on them.
From the Zawahri videotape:
I talk to you today on the occasion of the criminal aggression carried out by Musharraf, his army and his security organs – the Crusaders’ hunting dogs – against Lal Masjid in Islamabad, and on the occasion of the dirty, despicable crime committed by Pakistani military intelligence – at the orders of Musharraf – against Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi when it showed him on television in women’s dress. *snicker*
And here, is an example of the militants taking his words to heart:
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) – Suicide attackers struck a police headquarters and a military convoy on Sunday in Pakistan’s northwest, killing as many as 38 people in an intensifying anti-government campaign in an area long known as a haven for the Taliban and al-Qaida.
One day after a Taliban suicide attack on a military convoy in North Waziristan, the Taliban hit hard in Dera Ismail Khan and Swat. In Swat, a pair of suicide bombers struck another military convoy. Sixteen were killed, including 12 Pakistani soldiers and four civilians, and 40 were wounded after the suicide team rammed their cars into a convoy near the town of Matta. In Dera Ismail Khan, a suicide bomber attacked near the main hall of the police recruitment center as about 200 recruits were being tested. Up to 20 recruits were killed and 50 wounded, the Kuwaiti News Agency reported.
Many militant groups in Pakistan focused on operations outside of Pakistan, using Pakistan as a base. (They were often accused by militants for supporting an anti-Islamic regime, but these groups justified their policies by saying that a Muslim government is still a Muslim government; practically, the less they targeted Pakistani authorities, the less reason Pakistani authorities had to go after them.) Recent events may signal a significant change: the beginning of terrorist activity against Pakistani entities. Not only does this destabilize the infrastructure of Pakistan (what little exists) but also divides the country, as terrorism has many supporters there and efforts to wipe terrorism out will be sorely opposed. To say nothing of souring relations with Saudi Arabia, which funds many of Pakistan’s madrassas.
The only real solution is a massive, sweeping, bloody campaign to eliminate every last terrorist or militant outpost in Pakistan. Including purging the military and intelligence services of pro-militant personnel. But if this is done, either the government succeeds or it falls to the inevitable coup attempts.
He remains pessimistic. So do I.
And I’m not so sure that they’re not going to try to hit us here, this summer.
That “Graduation Ceremony” of the 300 suicide bombers was very disconcerting, but may very well have been just propagandistic, jihadi bravo sierra. That seemed to be the initial opinion of the Intelligence officials interviewed about the tape.
Michael Ledeen at The Corner thinks the OBL tape is a sign of desperation:
As mentioned, there’s an Osama cameo floating around. It seems to be from a video shot in 2001 or 2002. If that is correct, then I would draw two conclusions: first, that it is additional confirmation that he is dead. (If he were alive, they could do a new one, right?) And second, that this is a sign of panic, a poorly manufactured pseudo-blockbuster appearance designed to rally the troops, who must be getting fairly discouraged these days. The war is not going well for them in Iraq or Afghanistan (where the big “spring offensive” didn’t happen)or Lebanon or England or over here. The best thing they’ve got going for them at the moment is (are) the surrender monkeys.
The surrender monkeys? Ohhhhh….Democrats!