The Wisconsin State Journal surmised, Sunday, that an enthusiasm gap may benefit Republicans on Tuesday:
Two of their Senators, Jim Holperin, D-Conover, and Sen. Robert Wirch, D-Pleasant Prairie, face recall elections on Tuesday, and I think they should be concerned. There is, what the pollsters call, an enthusiasm gap, in favor of the Republicans. Democrats, discouraged that they don’t control the Senate might not bother to show up at the polls to defend their Senators.
Um — I hesitate to mention this, because it’s PPP (and we all know how reliable they are, right?) – On a less positive note, Markos tweeted, earlier today:
Just got @ppppolls results from two Wisconsin recall elections Tuesd. Dems will win both by double-digits. Remember, PPP nailed last week.
We’ll have to take a good look at the internals when the poll is released Monday morning.
And we would do well to listen to Professor Jacobson: Why are conservative blogs still linking to PPP?
PPP has a split personality; some of its polls are straight up and in actual elections it seems to do as well as many other polling organizations. But PPP also engages in messaging polls, which help shape the debate. And on its blog, PPP spins its polling furiously for Democrats. PPP wants to have it both ways, being neutral professonal pollster and advocate; it’s a tough act to pull off.
It seems that every time I bother to look at the numbers behind a PPP poll, I find that they over sampled Democrats. While I have not tested a majority of PPP polls, in the times I’ve looked at their numbers I’ve never seen a sampling which reflected party-affiliation reality or which oversampled Republicans. Maybe I’ve just had bad luck, or maybe there is a problem at PPP.
A poll like this one may buck-up dispirited Dems, but it might also depress turnout to the polls; why bother when it’s already in the bag – and they’re not going to be controlling the Senate, anyway?
Michelle Malkin: Wisconsin Recall, Part Two: Fleebaggers face the music:
The Wisconsin Reporter noted last week that big congressional guns came out for Steitz and Wirch. Appropriately, fleebagger Wirch’s congressional advocate was from…Illinois: Democrat Rep. Jan Schakowsky.
Steitz sums up the telling difference between the two recall elections Fox6Now:
Day after day the 14 state senators stayed away, much to the frustration of Republicans across the state. After three weeks, Republicans found a way to pass the collective bargaining bill without Democrats by removing all the financial elements.
The Democrat senators returned as heroes of the protesters, but were despised by conservatives in their districts. That’s what led to the recall of three Democrats including Wirch. Steitz says, “He needs to be thrown out of office, because he abdicated his responsibility, his job, despite what he’ll say, is to be in Madison voting on bills. He should have been there arguing against the bill, voting against the bill. I disagree with you, but don’t run away.”
Oh My!: Wis. Fleebagger’s Campaign Mail Piece Deemed “False, Ridiculous”, “Pants on Fire” Lie By Politifact
Hat tips Brian B and Charles B.