The results of the latest Poll: IBOPE Zogby Poll: Cain Trounces Romney in Head-to-Head Matchup:
Herman Cain trumps Mitt Romney in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, a new IBOPE Zogby Interactive survey finds, and he continues to lead the GOP field, although his numbers have slightly declined.
The interactive poll, conducted from Oct. 18-21, shows Romney leading Rick Perry and Ron Paul in separate head-to-head matchups. The survey also finds the endorsement of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie having no positive impact for Romney from GOP voters, but it does lead 34% to have a less favorable opinion of Christie compared to 10% being more favorable toward him.
|I would not vote
A Rocky Mountain Poll in Arizona also has Cain edging ahead of Romney 25% to 24%.
According to the survey, 25% of Arizona Republicans say if the state’s primary were held today, they would vote for Cain, a businessman, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, with 24% saying they would back Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who’s making his second bid for the White House. Cain’s one point margin is well within the survey’s sampling error.
Scott Wheeler explained the Cain surge at The Washington Times:
All over the country, I have had numerous people tell me over the past several months that if they could pick anyone out of the Re publican field to be president, it would be Herman Cain. Then they follow it up with this caveat: “But since he can’t win, I’m going with” so-and-so. (Insert the name of any other Republican here.)
Daniel Henninger wrote about similar observations in the Sept. 29 edition of the Wall Street Journal: “You hear the same thing said about Herman Cain all the time: Herman Cain has some really interesting ideas, but… .
“I love Herman Cain, but… .
“But he can’t win.
“At best, the answer has to do with that cloudy word ‘electability.’ Or that Mr. Cain has never held elected political office,” Mr. Henninger writes.
But something happened in September that changed everything. After the Republican candidates debate in Orlando, Fla., in which many saw Mr. Cain as the winner, and the Florida straw poll that followed, which Mr. Cain won, people across the nation started seeing for the first time that their first choice to be president really had a chance of winning – a possibility the Republican base hasn’t seen for a long, long time.
As soon as people who were already predisposed to like him, saw that he actually had a chance, they jumped on board the Cain-train.
Gallup reported yesterday: Cain Catching Up With GOP Rivals in Recognition.
Herman Cain is now recognized by 78% of Republicans nationwide, marking a gain of 28 percentage points since September and 57 points since March. This is the largest gain in recognition for any GOP presidential candidate Gallup has tracked this year, and puts him roughly on par with the other major candidates
Regardless of whether Cain ends up winning the Republican presidential nomination, he has accomplished the remarkable feat of moving from being relatively unknown among members of his own party nationwide to being recognized by almost 8 in 10.
Republicans have been relatively enthusiastic in their evaluations of Cain all year, and his Positive Intensity Scores for five weeks straight have topped the list. Cain’s score is down to 30 this week from 34 last week, but it remains more than twice as high as that of any other Republican tested.
About Three-Quarters of Republicans Who Know Cain View Him Favorably
Cain is in the enviable position of having the highest percentage of overall favorable opinions among Republicans and the lowest percentage of overall unfavorable opinions. Almost three-quarters have a broadly favorable view of Cain, and 16% have an unfavorable view. Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry are viewed unfavorably by 24% to 29% of Republicans who recognize them. Bachmann, Paul, and Huntsman are all viewed unfavorably by more than a third of Republicans who know them.
One reason for Cain’s increase in name recognition would be internet buzz created by campaign ads like “The Smoking man”
A perplexed New York Magazine wrote a post analyzing the ad: Five Theories About the Bizarre New Herman Cain Campaign Ad:
4. The smoking scene was another way to signal that Cain is not your normal, focus-grouped, politically correct politician. His chief of staff will smoke a cigarette like he’s a rogue cop in a film noir, and he doesn’t care if the anti-tobacco groups or the liberal nanny-staters whine about it.
3. Herman Cain is trying to appeal to people like Mark Block. He’s white, he has a mustache, he has a Midwestern accent, and yes, he smokes cigarettes. In short, he looks and sounds like someone from the SNLDa Bears sketches. And he believes in Herman Cain. Come on in, working class Republicans — the water’s fine!
(He kinda reminded me of Father Guido Sarducci.)
I think this reason is closest to the mark:
2. The smoking scene guaranteed that the ad would become viral. The Cain campaign knew that the mainstream media would throw a hissy fit over the inclusion of cigarette in a campaign ad, and they were 100 percent correct! Look — we’re talking about it right now!
As tipster Charles B. notes, once voters know him, they like him. And they are looking for any excuse not to vote for Romney.
Tina Korbe said at Hot Air commenting on his new radio ad:
Sheesh! No matter what he says, he sounds friendly saying it. A conservative in the cheerful mode of Ronald Reagan, indeed.
Ding ding ding!
Okay, not to be a turd in my own punchbowl, but some Tweeps put me to some (not so great for Cain) knowledge:
Via National Review: Romney Leads in Iowa, N.H., S.C., and Fla.
The leads in SC and Iowa are within the margin of error. Cain clearly has some work to do in FL, (and he is), and we all know he won’t win in NH, so no need to worry about that.
The nationwide polling trend has been surging in Cain’s direction, and barring some unforeseen gaffetastophe – it will continue to do so.
Check out these latest polls:
Romney receives the KISS OF DEATH:
This should help Cain on the foreign policy front:
FP:Exclusive: Inside Herman Cain’s new foreign policy team
Rush Limbaugh had a message to the GOP establishment, today:
“The circumstances that led to that landslide defeat for Democrats in 2010 have not changed. There is no reason for the Tea Party to have dissipated. There is no reason for the Tea Party to have lost energy and they haven’t, but every effort is being made to make people think so. That the Tea Party was a one-election-wonder and now they are back to their mom and pop stores and they had their one little fling with politics and now its over and the Tea Party doesn’t exist. That’s wishful thinking, but it isn’t the case; and so the days of Conservative Republicans…. settling are over.”
Hat tip: Charles B.
Linked by Doug Ross, thanks!