Newtmentum!: New Rasmussen National Poll Has Gingrich Beating Obama 45% to 43%

A new poll just released by Rasmussen, has new Republican front-runner, Newt Gingrich leading Obama in a national poll  by two points:

The Newt Gingrich surge has moved him to the top of the polls in Iowa, big gains in New Hampshire and now a two-point edge over President Obama in a hypothetical general election match-up.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Gingrich attracting 45% of the vote while President Obama earns support from 43%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The poll was conducted on the 27th, a day before Cain’s latest bimbo erupted. 

Ben Domenech’s analysis of Republican options going forward in the wake of Herman Cain’s implosion is spot on:

Under the first scenario, Newt Gingrich thrives. He laps up Cain’s supporters, who favor him overwhelmingly and distrust Romney to an incredible degree. Caveat that it’s PPP, but these numbers are jarring.  Gingrich’s favorability is 73/21; Romney’s is 33/55. Overall, “Gingrich’s net favorability is 73 points better with Cain supporters than Romney’s.” This is borne out by just about every other poll out there.  And Erick Erickson was asking his Atlanta area Cain-backing listeners and found that three out of four shifting to Gingrich. This could, as Matt Lewis notes, be a huge factor in coalescing anti-Romney support.   Has anyone else noticed that Romney’s numbers have steadily dropped this month?  He’s actually averaging closer to 20% now than 25 – the last poll to have him at 25 was in the first week of November. Newt’s moving into a stronger position in New Hampshire now, unlike the other candidates who haven’t taken hold there.  He’s approaching 40 percent in South Carolina.  Romney’s inner circle knows this is dangerous, and it’s why they’re investing so heavily in Iowa now.  Rather than building a coalition, he’s looking more and more like a candidate with a very firm ceiling, and that means he needs an early knockout blow.

Under this scenario, if Gingrich wins Iowa and runs a strong second in New Hampshire, he will absolutely become the Not Mitt, and probably the nominee. The most amazing comeback in the modern era is fulfilled; Bill Clinton laughs; Dave Carney retires to fish in New Hampshire. The GOP base, disgusted with a field they view as unprepared to be president and unserious about policy, goes to the old guy they’d love to see tell Obama to get his shinebox in the debates. Popular sticker at the 2012 convention: “F— it: NEWT.”

Exactly what happened in my case. Read the rest of his post at  The Transom. Like I said – spot on.


RS McCain not counting out Cain, yet, takes into account the credibility of his accusers:

Despite all of the obituaries for the Cain campaign, then, what do we know about the three accusers whose names are public?

Everybody keeps saying there’s an awful lot of smoke for there to be no fire, but each of these women has something in her background that tends to taint her credibility. A month into this, and we have no actual proof that Cain did anything wrong.

Weasel Zippers: Allen West: It’s Time For Cain To “Move On”…

(The Hill) — Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) said Wednesday he would advise Herman Cain to let voters “move on” from the distraction of his campaign.

Cain told his campaign this week it is time to “reassess” in light of the resurfacing of old sexual harassment allegations and new accusations this week that he carried on a 13-year affair.

4 thoughts on “Newtmentum!: New Rasmussen National Poll Has Gingrich Beating Obama 45% to 43%

  1. I know it’s too early but the excitement in the Obama camp must be palpable. They must feel like a football fan waiting for one more play where their team doesn’t fumble so they can take a knee and win the playoff game sending them to the Super Bowl to face the team they can beat handily because the matchup is perfect for them. The DNC might even stash their money they were going to spend on negative ads against Romney and wait till the Republicans self-destruct AGAIN this time. They could spend all that money on Senate races so they can keep the Senate AND the White House. We sometimes have a hard time recognizing there are more voters than we care to admit that don’t like everything that we like. Obama is salivating over the possibility that his last best hope to salvage his presidency is coming true. The Left comes up and promotes the phrase “anti-Romney” and we’re not only picking up the ball we’re spiking it in the end zone. How about concentrating on “anti-Obama”? No we’re too busy worrying about “anti-Romney” candidates… exactly what the Left wanted.
    Newt is not going to be President of the United States. He is not going to be elected in the general election. The “visual” alone will sway voters. The old, unattractive, overweight Washington “fatcat” in the frumpy suit with ethics violations in government who was forced to leave his leadership role, past adulterous behavior, who took money from Fanny and Freddie with no executive experience whatsoever and no business background who doesn’t have much women support now, nevermind when they get done “” him in the general is going to beat an incumbent President with a billion dollars in his coffers? Why don’t we start a write-in campaign to get Bob Dole or John McCain as our nominee? Romney was the only candidate in the last election that would have given the Democrat (remember we actually thought it was going to be Hillary in the beginning) a run for her money, we tagteamed Romney out of the nomination and the rest is history. Now that the economy has tanked and we need someone with business sense, now that the world is much more dangerous and we need someone with executive experience we’re going to cheerlead a guy that has neither because we imagine “Lincoln-Douglas” debates (that will never happen) where our candidate kicks Obama’s ass and people leaning towards voting for Obama or staying home will suddenly vote for our candidate? Has Newt ever won an election in a liberal or even moderate setting? Mitt has. Women feel comfortable with him and left leaning, right leaning, and conservative Independents support him as well. Business owners feel comfortable with Mitt. The guy’s an honest and decent family man that’s already been vetted. I’m reading that Romney is “thinskinned”? The guy took a daily beating in the liberal Massachusetts press every f…ing day and didn’t flinch.


  2. I apologize for commenting again so soon but I am “stewing” over this. We’re going to blow this and I have listened to conservative pundits articulate how we didn’t know Reagan would win in 1980 and the results of same. I have listened to pundits “hedge their bets” by saying that they’re not endorsing candidates while at the same time eviscerate Romney and support “anti-Romney” people. Some actually use that term. Let me say that if Sarah Palin was running I would support her, but she’s not. Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum are not gaining momentum for whatever reason. Herman Cain has been neutralized already, even before the Iowa caucus. Rick Perry, even if he gains momentum reminds voters of George Bush. Ron Paul will never be elected President although I agree with him on almost all issues including the controversial ones.
    This is not 1980 and the country has moved significantly to the left since that time. Reagan had been a governor and was a famous name prior to the election. He didn’t cheat on his wife, his wife left HIM. Our memories of him over the years have been nostalgic but not accurate. The closest candidate we have now, that is in the position that Reagan was in is Mitt, not anyone else. I heard Rush say that the country is even worse than it was in 1980 thereby offering an opening to nominate a more conservative nominee. That is not the case because there are more people on the public dole than ever before and because more people are on the public dole, because more people are working for the Federal Government, and because Obama has managed to do some things Jimmy Carter never did militarily it will take a businessman and an executive politician with a moral background to defeat Obama in the next election. Does anyone question that there are more entrenched liberals in government and in the judiciary now than there was in 1980?

    My take is this. The Left is disappointed with Obama. They KNOW he’s an empty suit whether they admit it or not. That doesn’t mean they’re going to stay home on election day or vote for a Republican candidate. In THIS ELECTION they will vote for someone that is an alternative to Obama if they feel comfortable voting for him or her. The Right, if they have any sense, will vote for the Republican candidate regardless. They know we can’t survive like this. Another term for Obama means a majority in the Supreme Court, radical appointees to prominent positions in government, and might mean the Country tips to the point where the “takers” outnumber the “producers” and we begin our death spiral.

    Newt would make a wonderful VP pick but this notion that Newt is the more conservative candidate is insane. Go down the line issue by issue and see where Newt stands and where Mitt stands. They are almost identical. I’ve been a police detective for over 35 years and I’ve been trained to see what actually IS, not what I expect to see and not what I want to see. The 2010 election was a wonderful indictment on Obama and local liberal politicians. It wasn’t a Presidential election however. Harry Reid is still the Senate leader. O’Donnell lost in Connecticut to an unknown “do nothing” liberal after we sent the incumbent packing, and California is in the hands of a tax and spend rehashed politician named Jerry Brown. Alaska didn’t even kick out the incumbent after she changed parties. Massachusetts voted for Barney Frank in lieu of a war veteran conservative. There’s a communist in New Hampshire that gets elected every election. Is Newt going to change that or is Mitt?

    In my line of work we rely on what we see to survive and it forces us to be perceptive… or we might die. We don’t “turn it off” when it comes to our families and our country. By nature we question what we see. For example we see the DNC going after Romney before the Iowa caucus and most of us wonder why? We deal with this every day so we all know that the reason they’re going after Romney, like they did with Palin and Cain and it is because they fear them. Then we are compelled to ask… why? They’re afraid. Unfortunately we are also trained to think like criminals and those “dirty bastards” that try to break the law and take advantage of people. Every cop, even fresh out of the Academy could answer the question “if you feared that a candidate would beat your candidate what would you do?” It’s taking place right now.

    My fear is NOT that conservatives disagree with me, my fear is that they are not recognizing all the “stimuli” and data out there for them to see what the situation actually is.


  3. Dave B – Your analysis of the horse race is compelling, (except you agree with Ron Paul? on foreign policy, even?!)
    I’ve been looking at polls and agree, that right now, MItt has the best chance of beating Obama. And you are very correct that having a squeaky clean background and a nice family is a bonus.
    The problem a lot of us have is the perception that he’s an establishment, big government, Rockefeller Republican. We don’t want that because we feel we can’t trust him. But I could easily vote for him over Obama.

    Another person whose opinion I respect (Ann Coulter) is also arguing convincingly in his favor.

    The thing I’m most concerned about are the yahoos who will stay home, or vote some third party if Mitt is the candidate. As if this country has another four years to give a Marxist bent on “fundamentally transforming the nation”.
    Um, no folks. The country cannot abide this any longer. What he’s doing to the DOJ, the judicial, etc is a travesty.

    Lily, yeah I saw that, and there’s a lot of stuff about this latest Cain accuser and the whole situation that is coming out now that really smells. The whole situation is making me sick, in fact.

    The question remains why he was having a relationship with this bizarre woman and giving her money. Why was he texting her in the middle of the night, (and why hasn’t she shown those texts). Why didn’t she ever record their conversations? Here, we have another shady woman with a sordid, checkered past making allegations without any proof.
    But the Cain camp’s initial response was very self incriminating.

    I don’t know what to think at this point.


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