Obama and Romney Neck in Neck in OH Poll… WITH D+10 SAMPLE!

This information came at the very end of the Gravis Marketing/Capitol Correspondent Ohio 2012 Presidential Survey, but I’m going to go ahead and post it right up front:

Survey of  594 likely voters was conducted September 21-22, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Party ID: 41.4% Democrat; 31.1% Republican; 27.5% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 27, 2012 are in parentheses.

Huh!

• Barack Obama-Joe Biden 45.2% {47.27%} [43.7%] (45.3%)
• Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 44.3% {43.19%} [46.8%] (44.4%)
• Other/Unsure 10.4% {9.54%} [9.5%] (10.3%)

A 2010 Ohio Exit Poll  showed R+1:

DEMOCRAT   36%            REPUBLICAN   37% 

A 2012 Gallup Party ID poll Ohio showed    D+1

DEMOCRAT   42%            REPUBLICAN   41%

I’d say party ID is basically even in Ohio – so why the +10 Dem skew? Does this mean R/R is skunking O/B?

Oh…and check out what RS McCain, who is in Ohio covering the race, reported Monday morning:

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus just held an impromptu press gaggle and said, “We’re going to outspend the DNC 10-to-1 for the next six weeks.” Asked about polls showing Romney-Ryan trailing in Ohio, Priebus said “we’re within a field goal and we’re going to crush [the Democrats] on the ground.”

That’s right, he said it: CRUSH. You know, I don’t mind telling you – that gave me a little tingle up my leg when I read it.

David Limbaugh gives 10 reasons  why he’s optimistic Romney will crush Obama in November.

Here’s 6,7,and 8:

6) The avalanche of negativity spewing from the liberal media can be discouraging to conservatives, but the liberal media have steadily lost clout over the past 20 years, and the alternative conservative media have never been more robust. Not only are the liberal media less powerful but also conservative talk show hosts, bloggers, tweeters, columnists and Fox News react with lightning speed to counter every single lie they promulgate.

7) The polls can be discouraging, too, but we’ve seen this in previous elections. Some pollsters showing Obama significantly ahead have a dubious history of distortion and have used their polls to manipulate instead of report public opinion. Most polls showing Obama ahead are either oversampling Democrats (using 2008 as a model instead of more recent elections) or understating Romney’s lead among independents. The Weekly Standard reports that through 2004, every incumbent whose Gallup approval rating was less than 50 percent at this point — as is Obama’s — lost. In Ohio, thousands more Republicans have ordered absentee ballots than Democrats. Also, I’m skeptical that all poll respondents are being completely candid in their positive responses about Obama for fear of being accused of racism or of being out of step with the manufactured media narrative that Obama is a likable person.

8) Obama is having some difficulty with his base, which is why his campaign is increasingly desperate and shrill. Some blacks are so angry over his liberal social views they may stay home. Some Jews are awakening to Obama’s mistreatment of Israel. If Obama were so confident, he wouldn’t be so flagrantly neglecting his official duties to feverishly campaign.

Or appear on Entertainment Tonight, Letterman, Leno, The View, etc…I’m sure I’m missing some. He’s got his hardcore left-wing base motivated,  so now he’s trying to shore up the stupid vote. He’s deploying  his notorious *ahem* “charm offensive” so people who don’t normally vote will  get registered and pull the lever for “President Eye Candy,” in November.

That’s exactly why it’s more important to him to go on The View and parlay with Whoopie, Baba and  Behar, than meet with world leaders at the UN.

Talk about desperate.

See Also:

For your edification: PJ Media: Skewed and Unskewed Polls

And, yep, I did miss a couple: Doug Ross: EXCLUSIVE FIRST LOOK: President Obama’s September Scrapbook

The Hayride: DICK MORRIS VIDEO: Actually, It’s Romney Who’s Gaining:

“Evidence of a strong trend for Romney going on out there.”

Which is a counter to the legacy media narrative that Obama is running away with the race. And Morris also tackles this UnskewedPolls.com business, which is a great site pointing out that if you recalibrate the electorate to the actual party ID of the voters Romney is winning in all the polls the media says he’s losing in. Because there simply is no way the 2012 electorate will look like the 2008 electorate did – much less the even more Democrat-skewed profile the multiple polls out there show.

UPDATE:

A new poll from ABC/WaPo has Obama up 8 points –  leading Romney 52% to 44%. Oh dear!

What’s the party ID sample look like, you ask?

Democrat

35

Republican

26

Independent

35

No pref./Other

3

Oh…. +9 Democrat, and I didn’t see any other cross tabs to see if they oversampled women – another one of their tricks.

Garbage in and garbage out as someone said in the comments.

UPDATE II:

Oh please…

Gateway Pundit: Hah-Hah-Hah!… Media Jumps Shark – Says Obama Leads Romney With NASCAR Voters

Hat tip: Charles B. for the polling data.

Linked by @rdbrewer4 at Ace of Apades HQ, Instapundit, Michelle Malkin, Doug Ross, thanks!