Reactions to Obama’s New Jobs Report: Widespread Distrust and Skepticism

Hot Air called the new numbers “disappointing.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered yet another disappointing jobs report.  In September, the economy only added 114,000 jobs, and while the jobless rate dropped to 7.8%, that mainly came from a mid-year adjustment last month on the number of current jobs…

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CNBC calls the numbers “tame,” but also notes the “contradictory” numbers:

Job growth remained tame in September, with the economy creating just 114,000 net new positions though the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent.

The report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number.

The falling jobless rate had been a function as much of the continued shrinking in the labor force as it was an increase in new positions.

But the government said the total number of jobs employed surged by 873,000, the highest one-month jump in 29 years. The total of unemployed people tumbled by 456,000.

Via Business Insider, former GE CEO Jack Welch weighed in on Twitter, saying what everyone’s  thinking:

Via Big Government, ABC News’ Chris Cuomo is also skeptical of the numbers:

John Nolte puts the report into perspective:

Adding to the mystery is the fact that the U-6,  the longtime underemployment and unemployment number, remained fixed at a dismal 14.7%.

What this .03% drop means is that the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 when only 114k jobs were created–well below the monthly average, and below population growth. Where did 342k people go to lower the number so dramatically just 31 days before a presidential election? Did they retire, leave the planet, die of old age in the unemployment office?

Moreover, just 30 days before the election, 342K people dropped off the unemployment rolls and lowered the unemployment rate to below 8%–a benchmark number vitally important to President Obama who promised his stimulus would ensure we wouldn’t hit 8%.

Finally, this is the second hinky looking report/revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in as many months. Just days ago, 400,000 jobs were “discovered“–almost the exact number Obama needed to have a record of creating more jobs on his watch than were lost.

Meanwhile, over at Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden just discovered an “Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration”:

  • Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
  • Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Precisely 2/3 if you can believe that….

Chuck Woolery just tweeted:

Ace of Spades HQ: Unemployment Rate Plummets to 4.3%… For Government Workers:

Yes, that sounds about right.

The best news anywhere in the U.S. economy over the past three months has been in the government sector, where unemployment has dropped dramatically from 5.7 percent in July to 5.1 percent in August to 4.3 percent in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Both the federal and state governments increased their employees in July, August and September.

Romney, meanwhile, has issued a statement on the still-awful unemployment (at a level which no incumbent president has been reelected with)…

Keep reading…

The Real Jobs Report. As Pethokoukis explains, it’s still awful.

Among his points:

3. The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.4. The shrunken workforce remains shrunken. If the labor force participation rate was the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%. If the participation rate had just stayed steady since the start of the year, the unemployment rate would be 8.4% vs. 8.3%. Where’s the progress? Here is RDQ Economics:

Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4%–5% real economic growth historically but much of the decline is accounted for by people dropping out of the labor force (over the last year the employment-population ratio has risen to only 58.7% from 58.4%). We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility). Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline.

But Obama’s out there telling supporters, “More Americans entered the workforce, more Americans are getting jobs.”

Via Twitchy, more reactions to Obama’s jobs report from on Twitter:

West wrote on Facebook:

I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here. Somehow by manipulation of data we are all of a sudden below 8 percent unemployment, a month from the Presidential election. This is Orwellian to say the least and representative of Saul Alinsky tactics from the book “Rules for Radicals”- a must read for all who want to know how the left strategize . Trust the Obama administration? Sure, and the spontaneous reaction to a video caused the death of our Ambassador……and pigs fly.

Newsbusters: Santelli Smells A Rat: ‘I Told You They’d Get It Under 8%—They Did!’

Rick Santelli, the man who helped launch the Tea Party with his impassioned comments from the trading floor in 2009, sees the hand of politics at work in today’s announcement that the unemployment rate has dipped below 8%.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning just minutes after the number was announced, Santelli said: “I told you they’d get it under 8%–they did!

Tammy Bruce: Surprise! Unemployment Down to 7.8%; Yes, Economists & Others Are Calling Shenanigans:

Not entirely unexpected considering the regular numbers shenanigans from this administration. Horrible performance for 44 months and then suddenly an improvement–the month before the election. Right. Don’t get me wrong–I’d be thrilled if this number was real, but the fact of the matter is, like with everything else Obama does, it’s baked to benefit Obama with complete disregard about the impact on regular people’s lives. Santelli and Jack Welch have already chimed in with concerns about legitimacy. I would expect we’ll see an ‘adjustment’ just after the election reflecting the real number.

Daniel Horowitz, Redstate: Why Today’s BLS Jobs Numbers Make No Sense:

There is no good news in this report from any of the numbers that actually make sense, except for the revisions of the July and August numbers.  There is clearly a statistical anomaly here – one that is skewing the numbers counter to the current trend of the economy.  But somehow, despite the internal numbers of the household survey and the payroll numbers of the establishment survey, the topline U3 number always seems to decline…..Pay no attention to that 14.7% U6 broader measure of unemployment!

Free Enterprise: It’s Official: Worst Recovery in Post-World War II Era:

It’s official. With this morning’s jobs numbers, we have entered the longest recovery period of the post-World War II era.

This dubious honor means it’s been 40 months since the recession technically ended, but its reverberations continue to shake the economy. The Chamber’s chief economist, Dr. Martin Regalia, said:

“[Job growth] remains far too slow to reemploy the millions who remain unemployed or underemployed. With the economy still stuck in first gear, the policies coming out of Washington, such as the looming fiscal cliff, take on even greater significance.”

These are uncharted waters. Looking at previous recession and recovery periods, even some of the bleakest, we were out of the woods by now. But today, we are still 4.5 million jobs away from pre-recession levels. That’s a daunting number, even accounting for population increases.

How does today compare to previous recession and recovery periods? Check out the chart and photos below.

Legal Insurrection: Obama can celebrate the jobs report, the American people cannot:

Who could have predicted this, a made for headlines declining nominal “unemployment rate” which would be used by the Obama campaign to its advantage while the reality underneath the numbers showed a disaster.

I predicted it, as did many others.

The September jobs report has the headline the Obama campaign wanted:  September Jobs Report: Unemployment Falls to 7.8 Pct:

I don’t think arguing that the BLS “manipulated” the numbers is productive, it gives the MSM the perfect excuse not to look at what the numbers really show.

The reality is that the top line number of 7.8% was a huge drop with only 114,000 net new jobs created. How is that possible?  114,000 net new jobs is a horrible number yet the unemployment rate dropped by 0.3%?

James Pethokoukis explains…

Ace of Spades HQ: Why That 7.8% Unemployment Figure Is Raising Eyebrows

Linked by Doug Ross, thanks!

7 thoughts on “Reactions to Obama’s New Jobs Report: Widespread Distrust and Skepticism

  1. Pingback: Hoo Boy « All Tied Up and Nowhere to Go

  2. Pingback: Where Did 342,693 Jobs Go? « Grumpa Joe's Place

  3. Pingback: Larwyn’s Linx: Obama, Dems Almost Answerable to No One | Preppers Universe

  4. Quote from Solis: I will tell you that we look at each report differently. We just saw revisions for the last two months and this happens. I mean, these are estimates that obviously, the BLS puts out. They do the best calculation, using the best measurements and tools and we’ve been using them for the past 70 years. We haven’t changed anything and the information that I received is given to me by our professional, civil service staff in the BLS.

    I cannot think of many tasks or jobs that could go 70 years without someone finding better methods and/or tools. Of course, I do not believe for an instant that Solis’ statement is true – just like I don’t believe the recently published jobs report is true.

    Like

  5. Pingback: Surprise! Unemployment Down to 7.8%; Yes, Economists & Others Are Calling Shenanigans « RubinoWorld

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