Trump’s VP Pick — A Prediction

Via Reeko, who is pretty sure he knows who it’s going to be:

Mike Pence brings nothing to the Trump ticket. Virtually nobody outside of Indiana knows who he is. From all accounts he is a wonderful Governor and might’ve made in other circumstances, a wonderful dream ticket. but not 2016. Donald Trump already won the Indiana primary, so in business terms, Mike Pence doesn’t bring anything to the Art Of The Deal.

The rest of the field of VP candidates, that are being so-called “vetted” are not in my opinion, actually being vetted for VP. Maybe cabinet positions, but not VP. Trump knows what he has to do, and just like when he released his short-list of SCOTUS nominees, with some heavy-hitters on it, he received immediate cheers from conservatives and TEA Party types all over. Bravo! But remember how Trump did that. He is doing the same thing for building his future cabinet. AND most importantly, he already has told us who he wants…

Now as to Cruz’s hurt feelings and hesitance. that is natural, and again, IMO, Trump is trying to show Cruz that he is a very serious and conservative-oriented about his choices. (the term “conservative” may need to be refined in this new age of Trump – but that can be discussed later at more length)  here is the kicker though, and this is very, very important: Texas is in play this November. most people I tell that to are stunned and even ridicule me for it, but here are the facts…

Texas is currently listed even by RCP as only slightly pink, leaning Trump. but what the RCP averages don’t take into consideration is the real politics of the Texas electorate. although a slightly healthy divide between Dems and Republicans, those GOPers are divided into roughly three evenly distributed groups: 1 – pro-Cruz; 2 – middle road pro-Trump; and 3 – the Never-Trumpers. that last group is – again IMO – by far one of the most influential in the entire country. And they are extremely diehard anti-Trumpists. They will either not vote, vote Hillary, vote Gary Johnson, or even write in Obama (again!) and no, I’m not joking. without Cruz or even Perry as his VP, Trump can forget about taking Texas in November. yes, it is that serious.

And most importantly, Cruz knows it. right now, he is in what we call the Catbird’s Seat. In fact, he knows he marshals a very large contingent of not only supporters, but delegates for the convention. Cruz also knows that the GOPe Never-Trumpers will never, never, never allow him to finagle, schmooze, cajole, or outright steal the nomination away from Trump. and that is even if Cruz were so disposed to do so. I don’t think he is. I think he is an upright, honest, and forthright kind of guy. But his supporters and delegates are another story altogether….

And before anybody gets their knickers in a wad, yes, I did vote for Cruz in the primary. why? Because I called the primary results well over a year ago: Trump with a massive delegate count followed by ONLY one second place finishing strong – Ted Cruz. I voted for Cruz with that intent, to put him in a strong second place finish. Turns out that I was absolutely exact on that result.

The only guessing I can’t figure right now is, when is Trump going to announce? Actually, I think it already has been worked out between either Cruz or Perry and the Trump people. but the timing is everything, and I can’t figure out if it will be this week before the convention or immediately before or even during? Usually, I can also call the time of the VP announcement, but i can’t see it this time. It basically is up to Cruz to give the go ahead nod. And Cruz may be holding out hopes that there is some kind of delegate revolt or upset like the court case in Virginia that seems to be going ahead in favor of the Cruz delegate. It may be that Cruz is trying to eyeball what he thinks his delegates can scam or pull off. And yes, present company excepted of course *(would never accuse you of anything devious at all!) but Cruz operatives are some of the most extreme I’ve ever encountered. They literally will try anything to win. Of course, they think they are doing it for “the country” but i seriously doubt that.

A Trump-Cruz 2016 ticket would be a guaranteed blow-out in November of at least 45 states. (although i still say about 47)  and u know what else?

The Democrats know it.

The media know it.

Trump knows it.

Cruz knows it.

Even the Bernouts know it, and yes a good percentage of them will vote for a Trump-Cruz ticket.

The only people who are living in complete denial and an alternate reality are the Never-Trumpers. so they leave the GOP like George Will? good riddance. buh bye!

This election will be about the Mike Rowe’s of the country – not about the Mitt Romneys.

This election will be between the Robertsons of Duck Dynasty and Caitlyn Jenner and the Kardashians.

The choices this election will determine if we as a country go with VHS or Betamax – and we already know how that turned out.

I will leave you with a morsel for those Cruzers who are whining that they will go all Libertarian-retard and vote Gary Johnson. Here is a paraphrased quote from one of the Libertarian demi-gods, Ludwig Von Mises who said:

“If you offer a man a cup of milk or a cup of cyanide, you are not offering him a choice of beverages. You are offering him a choice between life and death.”  KA – BOOM!

—-

*No Cruz operatives here, (not that he isn’t vastly more qualified than the presumptive nominee.) It’s just hard to fathom how Trump could possibly justify to the electorate a choice for VP, a guy he spent six months slurring as “Lyin’ Ted.” Not to mention the absurd conspiracy theory about his dad being involved with the Kennedy assassination. I don’t know how Trump pulls that off. I don’t know how Cruz swallows his pride and goes along with it. 

That said, following a meeting with Trump, Cruz did tell reporters he has agreed to speak at the RNC in a show of “unity.”

Meanwhile….Never Trump Movement Gears Up For Final Play To Stop Trump At Convention:

CLEVELAND, Ohio—Republican National Committee delegates determined to stop Donald Trump at the GOP Convention next week are in the final planning stages of their mission.

Several groups are fine-tuning various convention floor strategies that would allow delegates to vote their conscience on the first round of balloting, rather than being required to vote for the candidate who won their state contest.

Composed of various alliances who talk to one another on conference calls, email lists and text messages virtually every day, groups like Save Our Party, Delegates Unbound and Free the Delegates find themselves in the final home stretch this week as key RNC delegate committee meetings (platform, rules, credentials) convene before the GOP picks its nominee at the convention.

I’m not saying I’m for it or agin it. Trump did win fair and square and has a large and enthusiastic following. On the other hand — he’s a terrible candidate and a nincompoop who is not getting better at campaigning as time goes on. 

I honestly don’t think he’s going to pick up many Bernie supporters. The good news is, millennials are appalled by Hillary. The bad news is, (most) millennials are even more appalled by Trump.  

A solid conservative Republican candidate would be roundly beating damaged-goods Hillary in the polls right now — not trailing like Trump is. 

I predicted a year ago that Hillary wouldn’t make it to the finish line. EmailGate was THAT serious and the MSM wasn’t in the mood to give her a pass. By all rights she should be toast, right now. Her corruption has been exposed for all to see, and yet she hobbles on. The only reason she still viable is because the GOP’s candidate is profoundly awful, too.

What a fine mess we’re in.

 

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Reeko’s Picks and Prognostications

Once again, my friend in DC weighs in on the state of the 2016 presidential horse race:

As most polls predicted, and I agreed, that Trump would get the GOP nomination, my further prediction was that he will pick either Cruz or Perry as VP, but that would eventually come around only after a brief pause to lick one’s wounds. At the very least, my guess is that Trump’s VP will be a Texan or somebody from another large electoral state to give him the lock on at least 45 states in the electoral. What that means is: no Gingrich, no Ryan, nor even Kasich, no Walker, or certainly not JEB! would be on the Trump short list. Although I did think for a while that it could be Rubio, now, not so much. Trump pretty much has Florida in the bag. So for what its worth, I still think it will be a Texan.

Have u seen Trump’s SCOTUS nominee list? I’m sure you have. IMO, for no other reason that list alone should
make all true conservatives vote for the Trump ticket. Remember, #neverHillary means Never Hillary Matters!

Now for a little fun. Here are my latest predictions:

1. Trump will win at least 45 states in November. Actually thought it would be 47 or 48, but a lot of very big hitters
from as long ago as the Reagan administration’s Art Laffer and Pat Buchanan are now saying at least 45, so I will go with that number also.

2. Hill/Bill will have a medical “problem” soon.

3. Another shocker, re: above number 2, … but so will Bernie. 😉

4. Trump will also win in November with the most votes of any candidate in US history. It will be that historic.

5. Three major world events are happening this summer: first, the GOP convention followed almost immediately by the DNC convention, then a few weeks later the Rio Olympics. The GOP convention will be orchestrated and run by the premiere folks who Trump has used in the past to run major events like beauty pageants, sporting events, etc. only this time, the ratings will be through the roof – for all the good reasons. We are talking about the one major media/celebrity event of the century, and it will be so spectacular and over-the-top that from coast-to-coast and in flyover mid-America, from North to South from East to West and all over the world even, there will be a Trump media-bomb like no other in history. To say that it will be a big production isn’t strong enough… it will be yuuuge. Do not doubt that.

6. The second major event will be the disaster at the DNC convention in Philadelphia immediately after the GOP convention concludes. It will be Occupy Wall Street plus 1968 Chicago, times ten. The Clintonistas will want their revenge by then, and so will the Bernouts. Nobody has a clue who the DNC will actually put forward as the nominee to take on the mega-Trumpasaurus, but he/she will do so very reluctantly… knowing full well that they will fade into history as just another trivia factoid that nobody will remember. Yes, the DNC will come undone and the Democratic Party will implode on its own bloated ideological obesity, just as I predicted in my previous opinion piece.

7. The news legacy media will be reeling from the DNC disaster, and will be desperate to switch focus to anything
 – literally anything – other than the US presidential race. Ergo, no matter how bad the weather, infectious pandemics, crime, corruption, etc, at the Rio Olympics, it will be THE only story we will be seeing or hearing about for three weeks. Maybe longer if they can get the body count up. And no, that’s not a mis-type. Rio 2016 won’t be about the medal count. It will be about the body count. And I ain’t talking about the lurid media cronies in their exclusive reporting beachside, counting all the scantily clad Girls From Ipanema. No, unfortunately I’m talking about dead bodies.

8. And the worst prediction is the only thing that isn’t part of my political preview, yet remains the one thing that hovers over all humanity like a modern day bubonic plague: nuclear/bio/chemical/jihadic terrorism. It will happen. Soon. I don’t think it will be in the US, but could be. More likely it will be in a foreign port with US and allied-flagged vessels nearby. Rio 2016? No thanks. I ain’t buying that ticket.

Trumping Washington

Anyone up for another guest post from another former Airman?

Move over Reeko, Flowershop in Baghdad author Michael Banzet has some compelling thoughts on the 2016 race, too, and I’m more than happy to share them:

Donald Trump has been much in the news lately. We can’t turn on the television without seeing him spouting his particular bromides about, well, everything.  His policies are simple to understand.  He will be the best at everything, and if you don’t think so, you’re stupid.  “Stupid” is the favorite descriptor for a wide range of dysfunctions; why spend too much time thinking about exactly what the specific shortfall or solution is, when, for so many things, “stupid” suffices?

And yet Trump is ahead in almost all polls for the Republican nomination, so I think the question is simply, why?

Donald J. Trump is no great conservative champion: he has proven through the years to take whatever positions are most advantageous to him at the time. To be fair, his previous responsibility was to grow his business, make more money and employ thousands of people while getting fabulously wealthy himself.  In order to do that he has paid for a few politicians, including the Clintons.  He probably overpaid.

He’s not really a conservative.  

So. What.

What have the great conservative champions done for the party of the right?  The recently passed omnibus bill has pulled back the curtain on the inner workings of the exclusive Washington club.  Where the little folks who elected this bunch of integrity traders are a distant, if even considered, thought.  The omnibus was a complete invalidation of the reasons that conservatives were elected in the first place. So all of grade A, super conservative, by-the-book, National Review Approved Conservatives accomplished no more than if all conservatives had voted for liberals.

I don’t even need to know a thing that was in the bill.  If the opposition gushes that it was a complete victory and they got more than they expected, that’s good enough for me to condemn Republicans.  Whether by cowardice, incompetence or corruption, the Republican party is ineffective.  In spite the inherent disadvantages of being the party of grownups, America sent alleged conservatives to state and federal positions in historic numbers in recent elections.  And have produced nothing of note, except smug Democrats.

But, why?

Why do the duly elected conservatives fail so miserably to enact the very positions they were elected to support?  I think it’s a very basic human behavior; the desire to be liked.  

After all, it’s much more fun to be liked than to stand and tell people cold truths that might make them uncomfortable.  Nobody likes to be the guy at the party to tell people to quiet down.  It’s more fun to yell and scream until the police come, and then complain about the “man”. It’s safer to blame poverty on an unequal distribution of wealth, rather than suggest individual behavior influences outcomes.  That’s the left’s advantage. When was the last time a Democrat tried to arrest runaway debt, justify a strong military, or get entitlements under control?  There isn’t much debate that those things are necessary to a strong, healthy country, but the left has a tough time telling the truth about what it’s going to take to remedy those problems.

It’s easier to blame Republicans, because they are the grown-ups that tell us we have to go to bed.  That there have to be reductions.  That the current fiscal path is unsustainable.  That reductions to our military make the world more dangerous, not less. That science is not what some people agree on.

So, it’s tougher to be a Republican.  But if you’re elected by the majority of people in your precinct, whatever the size, why wouldn’t you follow through on the promises that got you elected?

People might say mean things about you or may persuade you that there is a lot of money to be made by abandoning smaller government or suddenly see that looking the other way on illegal immigration results in you being able to command a slightly higher price for your integrity, as you sell it off, slice by slice.

And then comes Trump.

Whatever the man’s failings, giving a hoot about what people think is not one of them.  His narcissism is second only to the current White House Occupant.  But it also makes him bulletproof against being swayed by negative comments.  If anything, he seems to thrive on negative energy.  Not by rethinking positions, but by taking his ball and going home or doubling down. Don’t think he can build a wall?  Well, he will, AND he will make Mexico pay for it.

Think about the similarities between Trump and the President.  It’s like sides of the same coin.  They are both easily offended, both take disagreement as a personal affront, and if their issue fails, its someone else’s fault.  In the case of our President, its usually because he didn’t dumb down an explanation enough for the rubes he’s unfortunate enough to rule. In the case of Trump, there’s a mean girl at the debates.

But, an incredibly vain person has their strengths as well.

If their issue lines up with yours, you have a huge ally.

So, with the Marx Brothers and Sisters on the left, conservatives really have no other choice than to elect from the stable of characters on the right.  And, of the top three, I will not vote for someone who thinks he is running for El Presidente of Cuba, and refers to Cubans as “my community”. So that leaves Trump and Count Chocula.  I really like Ted Cruz, and think he would be a much better representative of this country, even if he’s Canadian. He’s an F-117A precision strike aircraft to Donald’s lumbering B-52 carpet bombing the left.  They both get the job done, it’s just how much collateral damage you get. They are both hated by all the right people and don’t seem to be bothered by it.

So, I don’t care about Trump’s conservative pedigree. We elected a whole raft of conservatives to the Senate and the House who’ve been waiting for something, I guess.  If he just controls immigration, strengthens the military, and puts some discipline into government spending, that would be a HUGE win.  The shrieking, mewling, crass bleats of the left will mean nothing to him, and may embolden him to greater issues.  He can be a loud, obnoxious spine for the conservative cause.

The fact that he’s a candidate is an indicator of the times and the desperation conservatives are feeling. He’s not the best candidate, but he’ll do.  If he is the Republican nominee, I’ll pull the trigger.  At least he’ll be crazy on our behalf.