Knowing What He Knows Now, Obama Would Still Not Support Surge

This is really amazing. I get the feeling that Obama is one of those guys who sees it as a sign of weakness to ever admit he’s wrong.

In an interview today with ABC, after speaking with General Petraeus, Obama credited the members of the Sunni Awakening, and Shia fighters with the success of the surge. GOP.Com reports:

Obama Told ABC’s Terry Moran That, Despite The Progress That Has Occurred In Iraq, He Would Not Have Supported The Surge. Moran: “‘[T]he surge of U.S. troops, combined with ordinary Iraqis’ rejection of both al Qaeda and Shiite extremists have transformed the country. Attacks are down more than 80% nationwide. U.S. combat casualties have plummeted, five this month so far, compared with 78 last July, and Baghdad has a pulse again.’ If you had to do it over again, knowing what you know now, would you — would you support the surge?” Obama: “No, because — keep in mind that -” Moran: “You wouldn’t?” Obama: “Well, no, keep — these kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult . Hindsight is 20/20. I think what I am absolutely convinced of is that at that time, we had to change the political debate, because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with.” Moran: “And so, when pressed, Barack Obama says he still would have opposed the surge.”

Did Obama even understand the question? Marc Ambinder Reports:

Obama said that he “did not anticipate, and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct.”

Soooo, knowing what he knows now…that the Sunni Awakening, and the Shii’a militias standing down would coincide with the “terrific work of our troops”, (aka US troops kicking al Qaeda’s ass)… he still wouldn’t support the surge??????????????? Even knowing that the horrific violence would probably have skyrocketed without enough of our troops to fight the bad guys and protect the Iraqi people?

HE’D STILL NOT SUPPORT THE SURGE.

In other words…the troops played no role what-so-ever in the routing of al Qaeda, the Sunni Awakening, and the overall reduction of violence that has lead to our almost certain victory in Iraq. They were pretty much just targets for our enemies.

Wow. GAME OVER, MAN! How anyone (with a working brain) will be able to take this man seriously after this, I just don’t know,

I mean, does this make sense to anybody? Hindsight is not that difficult, unless your arrogance prevents you from ever admitting when you’re wrong.

Much more at Gateway Pundit.

UPDATE:

Some think that Obama’s “no” answer to Terry Moran’s question was a good political move. (see comments). I strongly disagree. Here’s a great piece in Commentary by Peter Wehner who agrees with me:

That Obama opposed the surge is bad enough — but that opposition was not itself irresponsible or unforgiveable. It was understandable, if in retrospect quite wrong, to believe that Iraq, caught in an apparent death spiral in the latter half of 2006, was unsalvageable. Critics of the surge argued that we were sending American troops to die in a lost cause.

It turned out that Iraq was redeemable and that the President’s strategy, brilliantly executed by General Petraeus and the American military, worked faster and better than anyone thought possible. To say that he would oppose a military plan that one day may well rank as among the best in our history is stunning. Whatever would motivate Obama to say what he did — political cowardice, willful denial, astonishing blindness to the facts, or the mindset of an ideologue — it ought to cause Americans to rethink, in the most fundamental way, whether Obama is responsible enough to be President.

I suppose it’s also now reasonable to ask Obama if he would, in hindsight, oppose the Normandy invasion. His judgment is that open to question.

He also thinks that McCain should use Obama’s “No” answer:

This must surely rank as among the most misinformed, ideological, and reckless statements by a presidential candidate in modern times. The McCain campaign should do everything they can to make Obama pay a high price for it. That one word answer, “No,” should be advertised in bright neon lights. It should become Exhibit A that Obama not only doesn’t have the “judgment to lead;” he has now supplied us with evidence that few people possess judgment as flawed as his.

UPDATE II:

…..Annnnnd McCain goes there:

“I would rather lose an election than lose a war. My opponent would rather lose a war than a political campaign.”

UPDATE III:

More on Obama and the surge from Mark Hemingway at The Corner.

UPDATE IV:

Now he’s gone and told an incredulous Katie Couric that the money we spent in Iraq to fund the troop surge would have been better spent in Afghanistan. That’s why he would still oppose the troop surge, today.

In Obama’s opinion, all of the soldiers’ lives that have been lost in Iraq have been wasted.

UPDATE V:

From ThreatsWatch via Dave In Texas:

Presidential Candidate Obama’s statements in and about Iraq in the past 24 hours have been nothing less than shameless and disgraceful. While we strive to avoid political discussion at ThreatsWatch, criticism of his words transcends rank political partisanship if for no other reason than his claims are simply and flatly untrue, made in a war zone, during a time of war and while running to become the Commander in Chief of US Military Forces. This simply cannot stand unchallenged.

Not only does Senator Obama apparently think the Anbar Awakening and the Shi’a militia stand-downs that have occurred are somehow separate developments from the surge, which is a remarkable feat of logic in and of itself, but he is implying that they are part and parcel indigenous to what his ‘plan’ for ‘political progress’ would have afforded.

Continue reading at ThreatsWatch.

UPDATE VI:

22 thoughts on “Knowing What He Knows Now, Obama Would Still Not Support Surge

  1. The last highly visible politician to admit to a major error was President of Egypt Anwar Sadat in 1978. Consider where his candor got him.

    Politicians, being persons who make their living by “offering to share the elephants you catch with whoever will vote for them,” simply cannot afford honesty or candor. George W. Bush comes as close to either as any chief of state in my overly long memory, and he’s more reviled for it than for anything else about him. Here’s what a completely honest farewell-to-public-life speech from President Bush would sound like:

    “Well, yeah, I blew it on Iran, education, immigration and border control, the seniors’ prescription drug benefit, and spending generally, and I wish I could take back those decisions and make them a second time. On the other hand, Iraq, which my Department of State botched really badly after our boys in uniform did such a great job on Saddam, is finally coming around after a trillion dollar expenditure and four thousand American lives. I know, we really should have bombed the daylights out of the place and sowed the ground with salt, pour encourager les autres — see how international I am, David Gregory, you flouncing poof? — but at the time it seemed like too much work. And now that it’s all behind me, I’ll admit it: Islam really isn’t a religion of peace. But that all passes to my successor now, and I doubt there’s ever been a man happier to surrender his post than I. God bless you all, after eight years of this nonsense I’m ready for a big BLEEP! drink.”

    What are the odds?

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  2. Well, he’s wrong, but it’s a politically clever answer, one that gives more credit for success to the Sunnis and Shia than Bush’s “wrongheaded/stubborn/oh shit I’m on the record as having said this surge thing will never work” plan.

    So he can claim he opposed it and was right to do so, and Bush just got lucky.

    It doesn’t persuade those who don’t support him to reconsider their position, and of course it doesn’t matter to his supporters what he says. But it does mitigate the inevitable criticism from the right that “he thought all along it was a bad plan”.

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  3. But the question was “KNOWING WHAT YOU KNOW NOW…”

    His answer, in other words, completely dismisses that the notion that troops played any role in the victory over there.

    I don’t think it was a clever answer at all, but a monumentally insulting one.

    I think a lot of people would have respected him if he had just said, “Well, yeah….hindsight is everything….Knowing what I know now….

    But he just wouldn’t allow himself to do that, the egomaniac that he is.

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  4. Seriously Deb, what the heck else is he gonna do? He can’t say “Oh, I really supported it”, that will never fly given the public record. And he can’t say “Okaaaaaaaay, Bush was right”.

    So he says “no one could have predicted the Sunni awakening and the stand-down of the militias, including Bush. It was impossible to foresee. And if it hadn’t happened, the surge would have failed”.

    It doesn’t matter that successful counterinsurgency doctrine demands strong local political support and strong support from the population at large. Those nuances are lost on the average voter. Of course we could predict it, Petraeus built his plan around it. Doesn’t matter. He can safely claim Bush’s plan was stupid because all the violence was political (notice he doesn’t mention Al-Q?).

    It doesn’t make him right, he’s flat-out wrong. But that is a workable political obfuscation.

    Goldberg has a pretty good piece out this morning on the political merits of the surge. We (conservatives) want to make it the pivotal foreign policy campaign issue, but its very success means it moves off the radar for the electorate. It’s gonna be old news.

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  5. Seriously Deb, what the heck else is he gonna do?

    I stated what I thought he should have said, above. Terry Moran gave him an opening to admit he was wrong without looking too bad, when he said, “Knowing what you know now, would you support the surge?” It seems to me almost impossible for a sane person to answer no to that question, given the realities of the situation. I think it makes him look like an obstinate ass.

    I can’t believe you people would actually commend his political savviness, here, when he’s insulting every member of the military who has served in Iraq. Again, his answer implies that he thinks they had little to nothing to do with the success over there.

    I read the Goldberg piece. I agree that we should be looking ahead, and McCain should be stating a plan for a successful withdrawal (without a set timetable), which I believe he’s doing. But I’m not against McCain talking about the success of the surge, and pointing out how wrong Obama was. We can do both.

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  6. Well, yeah, I blew it on Iran, education, immigration and border control…

    Bush got a bad rap on education. I’ve never seen a decent critique of his policy, and hey, guess what? Test scores are rising.

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  7. I can’t believe you people would actually commend his political savviness, here, when he’s insulting every member of the military who has served in Iraq. Again, his answer implies that he thinks they had little to nothing to do with the success over there.

    Well, believe it.

    There are three ways to deal with a political argument. You win it outright (he can’t, cause the surge worked), you lose it outright, or you make it a non-issue. That’s the only play he has, and that’s the one he took. He’s not saying the military did nothing, quite the contrary he’s sprinkling it with all the right praises (heroic, hard fought, etc.). He’s leaving unsaid, but very clear that without the two political factors in the mix, the military alone couldn’t have achieved the success.

    It’s right, in the sense that, yeah, it would have failed without that. It’s flat out wrong in the sense that, we weren’t planning to achieve Sunni and Shia cooperation along with our operations.

    He can safely ignore that those factors weren’t part of the plan (which of course they were). Mostly because of the way we teed it up – badly. Most of what Bush said (or to be fair, what got reported) was “let’s wait and give it a chance to work”. Hell it sounded to ME like he was gambling on success, and I knew better.

    DrewM made a point to me just now; McCain would do far better to declare victory and plant himself right in the middle of it than he will arguing the past merits of support or opposition to the surge. Kerry ran on a platform of “the war was wrong”, but that argument was moot. We were in the middle of the darn thing, and all the voter cared about is “what do we do now”?

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  8. So he says “no one could have predicted the Sunni awakening and the stand-down of the militias, including Bush. It was impossible to foresee. And if it hadn’t happened, the surge would have failed”.

    I wish libs would get there stories straight. According to a lot of libs, the Sunni Awakening preceded the Surge (since the Anbar Salvation Council was formed in Sept. ’06), and so the Coalition deserves little credit for it. But if that was true, and the Awakening was making headway without the Surge, then Barack is wrong: it could have been predicted.

    Of course the libs’ point about the Awakening is very shallow anyway. The fact is, the US had been courting sheiks in Anbar a year before the Awakening, and the Awakening wouldn’t have been effective or contagious if the US had not taken a chance and provided support to the sheiks.

    It should also be noted that Anbar is the only province where the Awakening preceded the Surge. In Baghdad, the Awakening was irrelevant to the drop in violence. Some have attributed it to ethnic cleansing, but the precipitous drop in violence at the exact moment of the initiation of the Surge makes it far more likely that the Surge did, in fact, work.

    When we cleaned out Basra and Sadr City, it wasn’t because Sadr’s militia “standing down to some degree” and it wasn’t because the Awakening provided Sunni support. It was because

    The Surge was concentrated in Baghdad (with a smattering of forces sent to Anbar), and that is where its initial success should be judged. The Awakening was very important, but the Surge’s primary goal, pacifying Baghdad, was achieved via Petraeus’s strategy.

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  9. The libs don’t care Geoff – that’s the larger point. Obama’s supporters don’t give a rats ass how he answers this question, unless he concedes the point. So he doesn’t.

    Those of us who oppose him and were actually paying attention know it’s a bullshit answer.

    The squishy middle? They hear two sets of “facts” and don’t know jackshit about the Sunnis and the militias. He said/she said. Next campaign issue please.

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  10. Wow, started off that first sentence with a “there” instead of “their.” I don’t think I’ll reread the rest of what I wrote- it’ll be too depressing.

    Obama’s supporters don’t give a rats ass how he answers this question, unless he concedes the point.

    They don’t care anyway, unless he says he won’t remove troops right away. It’s the moderates/independents that he’s trying to convince, and they’re a little more discriminating.

    I hope.

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  11. Geoff, at least finish this thought:

    When we cleaned out Basra and Sadr City, it wasn’t because Sadr’s militia “standing down to some degree” and it wasn’t because the Awakening provided Sunni support. It was because

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  12. I can finish it for him. The political reconciliations and results achieved were because we, our military achieved them. We planned for them.

    Bush did a piss poor job explaining it (I’m shocked). I would have given my left nut to have Petraeus give us some Schwartzkopf-like briefings.

    In any counterinsurgency, you have to starve the insurgents from local support. At the outset, the average Iraqi is in survival mode. Keeping his head down, trying to stay alive. If that means giving them food and a place to hide, that’s what they do. And they watch to see just how serious the US and the Iraqi government is about taking this on. If you prove to them you’re going to fight, they’re gonna switch. And they’ll start ratting out the AlQ bastards who have been crushing them with murder and rape, and telling you who and where they are, where they hide their weapons and bombs. You get a flood of intel and your operational effectiveness goes up exponentially.

    Obama knows all that, but conceding the point wins him nothing. In fact, he loses.

    So he dissembles and claims there was no real plan. I don’t like it, but it’ll work. Unless McCain does what Drew suggested, and pretty darn quick.

    Which I think is very unlikely.

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  13. Geoff, at least finish this thought:

    Oh yeah – I was in a terrible rush this morning. DaveinTX is essentially right: I was going to mention the fact that it was Petraeus’s security strategy of locking down the city combined with the fact that our efforts since November 2005 to build up the Iraqi Army finally came to fruition.

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