Reeko’s Picks and Prognostications

Once again, my friend in DC weighs in on the state of the 2016 presidential horse race:

As most polls predicted, and I agreed, that Trump would get the GOP nomination, my further prediction was that he will pick either Cruz or Perry as VP, but that would eventually come around only after a brief pause to lick one’s wounds. At the very least, my guess is that Trump’s VP will be a Texan or somebody from another large electoral state to give him the lock on at least 45 states in the electoral. What that means is: no Gingrich, no Ryan, nor even Kasich, no Walker, or certainly not JEB! would be on the Trump short list. Although I did think for a while that it could be Rubio, now, not so much. Trump pretty much has Florida in the bag. So for what its worth, I still think it will be a Texan.

Have u seen Trump’s SCOTUS nominee list? I’m sure you have. IMO, for no other reason that list alone should
make all true conservatives vote for the Trump ticket. Remember, #neverHillary means Never Hillary Matters!

Now for a little fun. Here are my latest predictions:

1. Trump will win at least 45 states in November. Actually thought it would be 47 or 48, but a lot of very big hitters
from as long ago as the Reagan administration’s Art Laffer and Pat Buchanan are now saying at least 45, so I will go with that number also.

2. Hill/Bill will have a medical “problem” soon.

3. Another shocker, re: above number 2, … but so will Bernie. 😉

4. Trump will also win in November with the most votes of any candidate in US history. It will be that historic.

5. Three major world events are happening this summer: first, the GOP convention followed almost immediately by the DNC convention, then a few weeks later the Rio Olympics. The GOP convention will be orchestrated and run by the premiere folks who Trump has used in the past to run major events like beauty pageants, sporting events, etc. only this time, the ratings will be through the roof – for all the good reasons. We are talking about the one major media/celebrity event of the century, and it will be so spectacular and over-the-top that from coast-to-coast and in flyover mid-America, from North to South from East to West and all over the world even, there will be a Trump media-bomb like no other in history. To say that it will be a big production isn’t strong enough… it will be yuuuge. Do not doubt that.

6. The second major event will be the disaster at the DNC convention in Philadelphia immediately after the GOP convention concludes. It will be Occupy Wall Street plus 1968 Chicago, times ten. The Clintonistas will want their revenge by then, and so will the Bernouts. Nobody has a clue who the DNC will actually put forward as the nominee to take on the mega-Trumpasaurus, but he/she will do so very reluctantly… knowing full well that they will fade into history as just another trivia factoid that nobody will remember. Yes, the DNC will come undone and the Democratic Party will implode on its own bloated ideological obesity, just as I predicted in my previous opinion piece.

7. The news legacy media will be reeling from the DNC disaster, and will be desperate to switch focus to anything
 – literally anything – other than the US presidential race. Ergo, no matter how bad the weather, infectious pandemics, crime, corruption, etc, at the Rio Olympics, it will be THE only story we will be seeing or hearing about for three weeks. Maybe longer if they can get the body count up. And no, that’s not a mis-type. Rio 2016 won’t be about the medal count. It will be about the body count. And I ain’t talking about the lurid media cronies in their exclusive reporting beachside, counting all the scantily clad Girls From Ipanema. No, unfortunately I’m talking about dead bodies.

8. And the worst prediction is the only thing that isn’t part of my political preview, yet remains the one thing that hovers over all humanity like a modern day bubonic plague: nuclear/bio/chemical/jihadic terrorism. It will happen. Soon. I don’t think it will be in the US, but could be. More likely it will be in a foreign port with US and allied-flagged vessels nearby. Rio 2016? No thanks. I ain’t buying that ticket.

Not a Candidate; A Warning

The following is a guest post from Mike Banzet, a retired major in the U.S. Air Force, and author of A Flower Shop in Baghdad:

Donald Trump has been much in the news lately. Republicans seem to really hate him, Democrats really, really hate him, the media hates him, and apparently, everyone in the rest of the world hates him. He uses course language: “stupid” is the favorite descriptor for a wide range of dysfunctions, and his policy solutions are usually a three step process.

1. I’m Awesome.

2. I’ll find Awesome people.

3. There will be an Awesome result.

And yet Trump is well ahead of the field, blowing through super Tuesday like a hairy tumbleweed. Of the other top Republican contenders one is an accomplished lawyer who has won the right kinds of cases, including at the Supreme court; articulate, smart, patriotic, but unfortunately, looks a bit like “Count Chocula”, and people seem to think that’s “creepy”. The other believes that the reason this country exits is to provide a place for refugees to come to and thinks he is running for President of Cuba.

Then there is John Kaisich, who apparently is there to get snacks for the candidates. In a just world, Ted Cruz would be measuring the drapes in the White House. But he’s not.

Why?

Donald Trump is no great conservative champion: he has proven through the years to take whatever positions are most advantageous to him at the time. To be fair, that was his only responsibility; growing his business, making more money and employing thousands of people while getting fabulously wealthy himself. In order to do that he has paid for many politicians, including the Clintons. He overpaid.

But so what? What have the great conservative champions done for the party of the right? The recently passed omnibus bill has pulled back the curtain on the inner workings of the exclusive Washington club.

Where the little folks who elected this bunch of integrity traders are a distant, if considered, thought.

The omnibus was a complete invalidation of the reasons that conservatives were elected in the first place. So all of grade A, super conservative, by-the-book, National-Review-Approved-Conservatives accomplished no more than if all conservatives had voted for liberals.

I don’t even need to know a thing that was in the bill. If the opposition gushes that it was a complete victory and they got more than they expected, that’s good enough for me to condemn Republicans.

Whether by cowardice, incompetence or corruption, the Republican party is ineffective. In spite the inherent disadvantages of being the party of grownups, America sent alleged conservatives to state and federal positions in historic numbers in recent elections. And have produced nothing of note, except smug Democrats. If the other team is doing celebrations, you are in the wrong end-zone.

And what does that have to do with Trump? Everything. As mentioned above, he doesn’t have much on the way of provable bona-fides for the conservative club. He seems like a blue collar guy who just happens to have tons of money, fame and lots of hair products. He doesn’t have a lot of specifics on his positions, and isn’t super articulate in the ones he does have. Ironically, he’s really not a good candidate for either the Republicans OR the Democrats. So what is he?

A warning.

Donald Trump is a step in the continuum that, if not interrupted, ultimately results in the exercise of the Second Amendment. When the First Amendment loses its voice, the Second clears it’s throat. For so many in this country, the government has become unresponsive to them; growing ever more oppressive and aloof. The voting booth is where those issues are supposed to be rectified, but what happens when, through the proper exercise of voting; the government still tacks ever more leftward? The people haven’t; the government has. A large swath of the electorate feels alienated and oppressed by elected officials who refuse to live under the laws they pass.

The Founders had a remedy for that. After penning the rulebook for how the U.S Government is supposed to work, they realized that they should probably write down the rights of the people, just in case anyone got confused about who was supposed to serve who. And to serve as a restraint on an overreaching government, they put a couple of steps in the part of the rulebook that talks about people’s, individual (not collective, or as agents of a state) rights.

The first safeguard was speech. Through speech, and lots of it, there would be redress for an ever expanding government and any muffling of speech that was noxious to the ruling class. Like, “Don’t Tread on Me”. Now, the muffling is accomplished through safe spaces, trigger warnings, and the ever tiresome “-phobic, or -ist” slurs. And the shrinking violets we’ve elected allow themselves to be bullied into compliance with outrageous initiatives. Common sense, fiscal restraint and the will of the people evaporate as representatives that were elected based on one set of values suddenly see that looking the other way on illegal immigration or continuing racial and sexual discrimination results in them being able to command a slightly higher price for their integrity as they sell it off, slice by slice.

And then comes Trump.

Whatever the man’s failings, giving a hoot about what people think is not one of them. His narcissism is second only to the current White House Occupant. But it also makes him resistant to being swayed by negative comments, and the constant bullying of the left. If anything, he seems to thrive on negative energy. Not by rethinking positions, but by taking his ball and going home or doubling down. Don’t think he can build a wall? Well, he will, AND he will make Mexico pay for it. Mexico says no? It just got ten feet taller. An incredibly vain person has their strengths, and if their issue lines up with yours, you have a huge ally.

So, I don’t care about Trump’s conservative pedigree. We elected a whole raft of conservatives to the Senate and the House who’ve been waiting for something, I guess. If he just controls immigration, strengthens the military, and puts some discipline into government spending, that would be a HUGE win. The shrieking, mewling, crass bleats of the left will mean nothing to him, and may embolden him to greater issues. He can be a loud, obnoxious spine for the conservative cause.

The fact that he’s a candidate at all is an indicator of the times, the growing restlessness of a population that is frustrated that no one is listening. And every time someone criticizes Trump for the things he says, they are merely reinforcing the fact that the normal methods are becoming less and less effective.

In other words, Mitt should shut his pie hole. It’s ludicrous to have to defend thinking that illegal immigration is bad. That the Iraq War was a huge victory until the Democrats forfeited the sacrifices of their betters in order to skulk away from our young allies. That a country should be able to pay its bills.

Even if that means that trans-gendered tree frog mating habits in Zimbabwe must go un-studied.

The only thing that will hurt Donald Trump is if he starts backtracking on his signature issues. If he starts smelling like another politician, then he’s toast, and people will start applying the same rules to him as they do to others. Right now, he gets a pass. A scent of betrayal and he won’t.

He’s not the best candidate, but he’ll do. At least he’ll be crazy on our behalf.

Christie and Fiorina Out

Can’t say I’m going to miss Christie, but Fiorina I liked. Unfortunately, her campaign struggled to gain traction after some early success in the debates.

Following disappointing finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has suspended her presidential campaign.

“This campaign was always about citizenship—taking back our country from a political class that only serves the big, the powerful, the wealthy, and the well connected,” Fiorina posted minutes ago on her Facebook page. “Election after election, the same empty promises are made and the same poll-tested stump speeches are given, but nothing changes. I’ve said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I’m not going to start now.”

“While I suspend my candidacy today, I will continue to travel this country and fight for those Americans who refuse to settle for the way things are and a status quo that no longer works for them.”

Fiorina was angry after being shut out of last Saturday’s presidential debate, calling it “an utter disgrace for our party and for our democracy” in an email to supporters. She said ABC refused to let her campaign even buy a commercial during the debate.

Now, if Kasich, Bush and Carson drop out after SC,  hopefully, voters will be able to consolidate behind a non-Trump candidate and put a stop to his insane clown posse of a campaign. No disrespect to you Trump fans out there. I just don’t think he’s conservative or even particularly Republican, and I don’t think he’d make a very good president.

But “not very good” beats what the Democrats are offering this year (and any year), so I’d actually support Trump in the general, albeit cautiously, haltingly, tentatively, and probably regretfully.

Trumping Washington

Anyone up for another guest post from another former Airman?

Move over Reeko, Flowershop in Baghdad author Michael Banzet has some compelling thoughts on the 2016 race, too, and I’m more than happy to share them:

Donald Trump has been much in the news lately. We can’t turn on the television without seeing him spouting his particular bromides about, well, everything.  His policies are simple to understand.  He will be the best at everything, and if you don’t think so, you’re stupid.  “Stupid” is the favorite descriptor for a wide range of dysfunctions; why spend too much time thinking about exactly what the specific shortfall or solution is, when, for so many things, “stupid” suffices?

And yet Trump is ahead in almost all polls for the Republican nomination, so I think the question is simply, why?

Donald J. Trump is no great conservative champion: he has proven through the years to take whatever positions are most advantageous to him at the time. To be fair, his previous responsibility was to grow his business, make more money and employ thousands of people while getting fabulously wealthy himself.  In order to do that he has paid for a few politicians, including the Clintons.  He probably overpaid.

He’s not really a conservative.  

So. What.

What have the great conservative champions done for the party of the right?  The recently passed omnibus bill has pulled back the curtain on the inner workings of the exclusive Washington club.  Where the little folks who elected this bunch of integrity traders are a distant, if even considered, thought.  The omnibus was a complete invalidation of the reasons that conservatives were elected in the first place. So all of grade A, super conservative, by-the-book, National Review Approved Conservatives accomplished no more than if all conservatives had voted for liberals.

I don’t even need to know a thing that was in the bill.  If the opposition gushes that it was a complete victory and they got more than they expected, that’s good enough for me to condemn Republicans.  Whether by cowardice, incompetence or corruption, the Republican party is ineffective.  In spite the inherent disadvantages of being the party of grownups, America sent alleged conservatives to state and federal positions in historic numbers in recent elections.  And have produced nothing of note, except smug Democrats.

But, why?

Why do the duly elected conservatives fail so miserably to enact the very positions they were elected to support?  I think it’s a very basic human behavior; the desire to be liked.  

After all, it’s much more fun to be liked than to stand and tell people cold truths that might make them uncomfortable.  Nobody likes to be the guy at the party to tell people to quiet down.  It’s more fun to yell and scream until the police come, and then complain about the “man”. It’s safer to blame poverty on an unequal distribution of wealth, rather than suggest individual behavior influences outcomes.  That’s the left’s advantage. When was the last time a Democrat tried to arrest runaway debt, justify a strong military, or get entitlements under control?  There isn’t much debate that those things are necessary to a strong, healthy country, but the left has a tough time telling the truth about what it’s going to take to remedy those problems.

It’s easier to blame Republicans, because they are the grown-ups that tell us we have to go to bed.  That there have to be reductions.  That the current fiscal path is unsustainable.  That reductions to our military make the world more dangerous, not less. That science is not what some people agree on.

So, it’s tougher to be a Republican.  But if you’re elected by the majority of people in your precinct, whatever the size, why wouldn’t you follow through on the promises that got you elected?

People might say mean things about you or may persuade you that there is a lot of money to be made by abandoning smaller government or suddenly see that looking the other way on illegal immigration results in you being able to command a slightly higher price for your integrity, as you sell it off, slice by slice.

And then comes Trump.

Whatever the man’s failings, giving a hoot about what people think is not one of them.  His narcissism is second only to the current White House Occupant.  But it also makes him bulletproof against being swayed by negative comments.  If anything, he seems to thrive on negative energy.  Not by rethinking positions, but by taking his ball and going home or doubling down. Don’t think he can build a wall?  Well, he will, AND he will make Mexico pay for it.

Think about the similarities between Trump and the President.  It’s like sides of the same coin.  They are both easily offended, both take disagreement as a personal affront, and if their issue fails, its someone else’s fault.  In the case of our President, its usually because he didn’t dumb down an explanation enough for the rubes he’s unfortunate enough to rule. In the case of Trump, there’s a mean girl at the debates.

But, an incredibly vain person has their strengths as well.

If their issue lines up with yours, you have a huge ally.

So, with the Marx Brothers and Sisters on the left, conservatives really have no other choice than to elect from the stable of characters on the right.  And, of the top three, I will not vote for someone who thinks he is running for El Presidente of Cuba, and refers to Cubans as “my community”. So that leaves Trump and Count Chocula.  I really like Ted Cruz, and think he would be a much better representative of this country, even if he’s Canadian. He’s an F-117A precision strike aircraft to Donald’s lumbering B-52 carpet bombing the left.  They both get the job done, it’s just how much collateral damage you get. They are both hated by all the right people and don’t seem to be bothered by it.

So, I don’t care about Trump’s conservative pedigree. We elected a whole raft of conservatives to the Senate and the House who’ve been waiting for something, I guess.  If he just controls immigration, strengthens the military, and puts some discipline into government spending, that would be a HUGE win.  The shrieking, mewling, crass bleats of the left will mean nothing to him, and may embolden him to greater issues.  He can be a loud, obnoxious spine for the conservative cause.

The fact that he’s a candidate is an indicator of the times and the desperation conservatives are feeling. He’s not the best candidate, but he’ll do.  If he is the Republican nominee, I’ll pull the trigger.  At least he’ll be crazy on our behalf.

Ducks, Trump, Cruz, and Beaver Dams

Via Reeko:

Duck Commanders Willie and Phil Robertson have each endorsed one of the two GOP front-runners for President. Willie supports Trump and patriarch Phil has chosen Cruz. This is as delicious a political gumbo that I could ever think of tasting. This father and son team epitomizes the friendly and close political nature of our current two front-runners. Never any need for rancor – we are all in the same family, politically, and the future of our country is in the balance. Only one of the candidates will win, and most likely will win it all. Cruz himself just said that. No, really. He just said that if Trump wins Iowa, he will probably win it all. No kidding.

Willie and Phil understand that very well. Since they were forced to give up on their local favorite, Governor Bobby Jindal, both of the Duck Commanders know that there aren’t any better choices for President than either Trump or Cruz. We should all be that confident. They both are profoundly excellent choices, and both Robertsons give amazingly accurate reasons for their prospective choice. It does warm the heart, eh?

A persistent meme of mine that I’ve used since Trump entered the race, has been that of a recurring theme used since Episode One of the A&E hit show “Duck Dynasty” and continued through all the seasons including now. That meme is: blowing up beaver dams. For those not familiar with DD, the Robertsons are avid duck hunters and in fact have built their multi-million dollar empire on duck calls and other paraphernalia. They even have vast amounts of hunting land in lower Arkansas and Northern Louisiana which Phil simply calls “The Land” when telling whenever he is going out in it. On their “Land” the Robertsons and their Duckmen have a never-ending battle with beavers. To put it mildly, they HATE beavers. The invading rodents destroy waterways, trees, vegetation, and dam-up the natural flow of water which is so critical to duck flyways and habitat. The solution to beaver dams is, of course, the judicial use of dynamite. Lots of dynamite. Sometimes, just to practice blowing beaver dams up, they blow up other things as well. Like old trucks. Barns. Logjams, even if they just happen to not be a beaver’s fault. It is highly entertaining.

Sometimes, when the “natural flow” of our nation’s politics has become so dammed up as to not be able to tell the Republican Elites from the Democrats or the Socialists, then maybe its time for some judicial use of political dynamite. Trump OR Cruz could light that fuse. I’ll vote for that. Ka-boom! 😉

— Reeko Forsazh

The Coming Democrat/Republican Crack-up

Another post by Reeko:

Thank goodness for the Millennials. They will elect the next president and in doing so, they will in all likelihood save the United States – from itself. Most of them will not even realize the value of what they will be doing. We are in the digital age of instantaneous communications, transactions, feelings, emotions, and… elections.

The twin disasters of Leftist-Progressives and their enabling GOP elitists, who together have run the current ship of state with almost no significant interference from any constitutionally-minded or conservative force of consequence, are soon to get their comeuppance. The logjams of government that those two forces have intentionally dammed up will soon be – no, strike that – ARE being blown apart much like the Robertson’s of Duck Dynasty are dynamiting the hated beaver dams on their duck hunting properties. The refreshing flow of new energy in new voters and others of normally apolitical views, shows how fast this can happen and more importantly, why.

Rebelling against the status quo is a long and proud tradition in American youth. And since both the Democrats and GOP elites have left the grass-root TEA partiers bruised – but not silenced – while blue dog/conservative Democrats have been out-shouted and are equally despised by their Progressive leaders, the masses are murmuring for a leader who sticks it to the status quo. Although the main focus of the political pundits and/or pollsters would be on the Millennials, there are older voters who remember well what happened to Senator Joe Lieberman, and can’t wait to help. Its payback time.

Although the majority of Millennials will elect Donald Trump President of the United States it won’t even be close in the general election. Of course, there will be a minority of Millennials who will also vote for Bernie Sanders, but the outcome will not matter. The DNC itself will make sure Sanders isn’t their nominee. How they do that will be interesting in itself to watch, but as for the GOP primaries, we must first admit that from these same Millennials there will be quite a bit of help getting Trump to the GOP nomination without any significant challenge. Trump is their guy, no doubt about it, and it matters not one bit if the old-school political pundits think he is this or that or conservative or moderate or, whatever… as they say.

So how does Trump win? That’s easy: crossover voters. He will be aided and abetted by more than a few Democrats and Independents, the so-called “swing voters” in select states. There are at least 26 states that have either Open (19 states: anybody can vote for any party) or Semi-Open (7 states: registered GOP or undeclared voters can vote) primaries or caucuses that are guaranteed to allow crossover voters in their respective GOP primary or caucus. Trump will win those primaries in near landslides.

For all the rancor being shouted in the infosphere about the unraveling of the GOP from the outsiders leading into the 2016 race, take heart that it is not only the old guard GOP who are being undone, but the DNC and its enablers who are imploding as well. Ka-boom.

Reeko Forsazh