Eric Allie cartoon via Townhall
To combat the massive amounts of polling high jinks going on, right now, Poll Watch is going to be a regular feature here until the election.
First, here’s the always optimistic Dick Morris, last night on Hannity. Listen to him snap “I can!” when Sean Hannity opens the segment saying, “I can’t predict what will happen November 6th.” He goes on to predict, “if the Election was held today Romney Would Win by 4-5 Points…”
John Giokaris of Townhall, a Chicago-based political operative with five years of experience in law and journalism, explains what’s going on with all the skewed polling.
The liberal mainstream media and blogosphere are desperately trying to write Romney’s funeral using polls that oversample Democrats by as much a D+10, D+11 and D+13. In 2008, an historic election wave for Democrats, the electorate was D+7. In 2004, when George W. Bush won re-election, the electorate was evenly split. In other words, D+0. So was the 2010 midterm election: evenly split. The Democrat share of the electorate is not going to double this year. Given the well-noted enthusiasm edgefor Republicans this year, the electorate is going to be far closer to the 2004 and 2010 models than 2008. Any poll trying to replicate the 2008 is going to artificially inflate Obama’s support.
But as pollster John McLaughlin explains, “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR (Interactive Voice Response) polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are ‘not enthusiastic’ to vote or non voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30% range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this.”
A certain pundit on this site (guess who?) provided a link to some web site claiming that a national average of 2012 election polls (without citing which ones specifically) shows Obama leading Romney in several key states when excluding Rasmussen polls, implying Rasmussen has a Republican bias. What they fail to mention is that a Fordham University study concluded that Rasmussen had been the most accurate pollster throughout the 2008 election (and that was Obama’s goodyear).
I could just as easily provide a link to another website that claims to unskew the polls’ oversampling of Democrats to show that Romney actually leads Obama (and they even list which specific ones). But whether you look at Rasmussen, which has been accused of leaning right, Gallup, which has been accused of leaning left, both are showing the same thing: this race is virtually tied.
Another conservative poll watcher, Brian Cates of Draw and Strike! explains the familiar pattern of skewed polling in the weeks and months before an election.
During the Spring and Summer months leading up to the fall, Mainstream media pollsters try to shape the campaign news and drive a narrative with their polls. To accomplish this, they do funky things with the numbers.
Note that in the past few weeks in polls taken since the beginning of September, 11 of those pollsters shown above in that chart had a sample in their poll that was +4 Democratic or greater. 6 of them expect an electorate on Nov. 6th that is +7 Democrat or greater. And 3 of them expect Democrats to outvote Republicans by +10 points or more.
Now in 2008, Democrats DID outvote Republicans by +7. That was a historic wave election for the Democratic party; you’d have to go back decades to find another election where Democrats outvoted Republicans by anything like that kind of number. Usually the partisan split between Dems and Repubs is pretty damn close, and if it’s not tied within the margin of error, it’s between a +1 or a +3 advantage to whichever party gets the upper hand. So +7 was pretty damn eye-opening in 2008.
Despite the fact that a lot has changed since 2008, many of these MSM pollsters are using a 2008 template for their polls. That is, they are presuming a huge Democratic voter enthusiasm advantage that pushes the Democratic vote to another big advantage over the Republican vote. They are assuming Republicans are going to be outrepresented in the actual electorate that votes on November 6 by at least +4 or more.
However, all the signs point to a big REPUBLICAN voter enthusiasm advantage in this election.
Right now Romney is winning that Independent vote by a considerable margin. To make up for this, the MSM pollsters are undersampling Indies and Republicans in their polls and blowing up the Democrats in their samples, sometimes to ABSURD sizes, such as the ABC/News, Reuters, and Democracy Corp polls in that chart at the top of the page. +7 was a historic turnout for Democrats, yet some of these pollsters desperate to keep Obama way ahead of Romney are claiming a Democratic electorate of +10 or +11.
These MSM pollsters KNOW what the actual numbers are. Which is why they are in full-blown panic mode the past month and a half, trying to convince anyone who will listen to them that Romney’s lost already. They are seeking to dampen Republican voting enthusiasm because they know if Republicans turn out, it’s over. Their guy, their shining Prince, will lose.
John Nolte, Big Journalism: JUICED: PRO-OBAMA POLLS RELY ON RECORD DEM TURNOUT:
If you’re going to believe the polls released from CBS/New York Times this morning — you know, the polls the media’s currently using to beat Romney senseless and to depress Republican enthusiasm, you have to believe that the turnout advantage for Democrats over Republicans will blow away every previous record and common sense.
It’s that simple. Because these polls are not only telling us that Romney is losing OH, PA, and FL by insurmountable margins; these polls are also telling us that Democrat turnout is projected to blow away every modern record.
But these media polls don’t headline what they’re seeing as far as the Democrat turnout advantage because no one would believe it. In fact, no one believes Obama will match the D+7 nationwide advantage he enjoyed in 2008. And no one certainly believes he will surpass it.
Oh, except this non-stop litany of media polls being wielded like weapons by the corrupt media.
Via AoSHQ, Jay Cost of The Weekly Standard affirms that Yes, Most Polls (The Ones The Media Prefers) Are Giving Obama a Phantom 3-4 Point Edge
Obama is only even with Romney with Independents, and many Independents remain undecided. The only way, then, Obama can have a healthy lead is if he is getting much more out of his base than Romney is out of his own, a historically dubious proposition.
He does not mention the old rule — which actually isn’t a very strong rule — that remaining undecideds will break for the challenger. It should be noted that this rule really isn’t one, which is why I don’t think he mentions it.
That said: In this election, if the constant media fawning over Obama, and his overexposure, haven’t convinced you to support him, I just don’t think you’re going to wind up voting for him.
2. Currently the polls show the Democratic base being more unified than the Republican base — that is, there are more Republican defectors, away from Romney, than Democratic defectors, away from Obama.
Cost doesn’t even question this based on common sense (that is, given that Obama is presiding over a Depression at least partly of his making). He just looks at historical party unity numbers– in previous elections, the Republicans were more solid for the Republican candidate that the Democrats were for their own. Ergo, he finds the current situation indicated by polls — that Obama is more popular with Democrats than Romney is with Republicans — either wrong as of the moment or possibly correct at the moment but unlikely to persist.
Rush Limbaugh warned conservatives about the biased polling, on his show, today:Don’t Let Bogus Polls Depress You:
It’s a roller coaster. It is. This is why… I talked about it yesterday. Why do you think so many people in this country are stupid? ‘Cause of polls like this! Obama’s leading Romney in Ohio on a question of who’s better suited to run the US economy for the first time in the campaign? Why does that make any sense? How does that make any sense at all? The economy’s getting worse! So this effort to suppress your vote and depress you at the same time, folks? They’re ratcheting it up.
(I said essentially same thing on Twitter, yesterday:)
I think we're currently witnessing a major skewed poll offensive designed to suppress conservative enthusiasm. Don't fall for it.—
Nice Deb (@NiceDeb) September 25, 2012
They’re trying to wrap this up before the debates even start, because I think they’re worried about the debates. I think they’re trying to get this election finished and in the can by suppressing your vote and depressing you so that you just don’t think there’s any reason to vote, that it’s hopeless. They want you making other plans. We are told that according to the latest New York Times/Quinnipiac/CBS News poll, Obama is leading Romney by nine points in Florida, by ten points in Ohio, and by 12 points in Pennsylvania.
All among likely voters.
If that’s true, it’s over. If that’s true, it’s over, because there’s no way to recover that kind of ground in the number of days left. So the question is: Is this true? Is it anywhere near true? Well, the pollsters will all tell you, “What’s in it for us to be wrong?” But, folks, these pollsters can massage the sample in any number of ways to get what they want out of a given poll, and they will always be able to go back and say, “According to that sample, our poll was right on the money.”
Open your eyes – it’s beyond obvious, now what their doing.
There are now only six weeks until the all-important presidential election and the news and entertainment media are working very hard to cover for Obama — whether it be about his failures on jobs and the economy, or his failures in foreign policy including the loss of a U.S. ambassador, claim officials from the Campaign to Defeat Obama in a report on Monday.
In an attempt to discourage Republicans, especially conservatives, from going to the polls the denizens of American newsrooms keep suggesting that the Romney/Ryan ticket is finished, and point to their own polls to show how great Obama is doing in this campaign, according to the report, say the CDO officials.
“Recall the 2004 election between incumbent President George W. Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry: Several polls showed Kerry edging out Bush on election day. The media told the country beginning at 5:00 p.m. on the East Coast that exit polls showed Kerry beating Bush by a wide margin. Well, we know what happened that night,” said political strategist Mike Baker.
“And why did the media tell the nation Kerry was winning when he eventually lost? Because they hoped Republican voters wouldn’t bother voting,” Baker said.
“In fact, the only talk show host to tell Republicans not to believe the polls and go out and vote was former Justice Department chief of staff Mark Levin,” noted Baker.
DaTechGuy has been on top of the skewed polling, all year:
…with a sample that is D+9 in Florida, Barack Obama has a +9 lead on Mitt Romney! In Ohio with a D+9 Sample Obama has a +10 Lead and in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample he has +12 lead.Now I have absolutely no trouble believing these states are close nor to I disagree that Mitt Romney should be more aggressive but come ON guys?***By an odd coincidence the last time this poll came out Hugh Hewett questioned Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polls and asked him about this (emphasis mine):
HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?
PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.
HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.
PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.
Mind you this is the guy who actually does the poll saying this
Let me close with this bit from the American Spectator and an exchange between Ben Bradlee and Ed Rollins from 2004
A few weeks later, the Washington Post ran a story that confirmed Rollins’ initial beliefs. The Post confessed that… well… oops… it had made a mistake with those California polling numbers. Shortly afterward came the November election, with California once again giving Reagan a more than 16 point victory. In fact, Reagan carried 49 states, winning the greatest landslide victory in presidential history while losing Minnesota in — yes — a close race. Mondale had 49.72% to Reagan’s 49.54%, a difference of .18% that might have been changed by all that money that went into California. Making Reagan the first president in history to win all fifty states.
After the  election, Ed Rollins ran into the Washington Post’s blunt-speaking editor Ben Bradlee and “harassed” Bradlee “about his paper’s lousy polling methodology.”
Bradlee’s “unrepentant” response?
“Tough sh…t, Rollins, I’m glad it cost you plenty. It’s my in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”
Let’s be blunt…we’re dealing with damn, dirty, scheming libs who, as we all know by now, (say it with me) “wake up every morning and ask themselves, how can we fool them, today?”
Here’s where the only poll that matters has the race:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide.
When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 48% and Obama 46%.
Via Charles B., some sweet polling news from Iowa.
Obama expands Iowa lead to 7 points
Raleigh, N.C.– PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 7
points in the state, 51-44. Obama’s advantage has increased by 5 points since PPP’s last
poll of the state in late August when he led just 47-45.
The biggest change in the last month has been significant
This news release – announcing that there are now roughly 20,000 more registered Republicans in Iowa than registered Democrats – suggests that Hawkeye state Republicans can crow about a dramatic turnaround, pointing out that back in January 2009, Iowa Democrats enjoyed a 110,000 voter registration advantage.
In terms of how many voters are registered with each major party, Democrats continue to hold advantages in several key swing states, but in all of those states, their advantage is considerably smaller than it was in 2008.
Via CDBO Headquarters:
Dick Morris, Karl Rove & Scott Rasmussen were on Fox News Channel tonight and they articulated the message that we’ve been trying to convey to you for weeks. Don’t believe the major media polls. They are wrong. They are deliberately over-sampling Democrats, and it is adding several bogus points to Barack Obama’s numbers in the polls.
The media is doing this to depress conservatives – hoping that you will stop contributing to the campaign against Obama, that you won’t volunteer at the local Republican Victory Center, and that you’ll hopefully stay home on Election Day. Don’t let the media get away with this shameful behavior!
The good people at Breitbart.com have produced further evidence to show you the bias in the polling, again – being done to trick you into thinking Obama has already won. Below is a review of the latest polls taken among Ohio voters. Here’s what is fascinating: over the past four years, Democrats have turned out more of their voters to the polls than Republicans by a 1% margin. You read that right – just 1%. Yet, as the team at Breitbart.com just discovered, the polls being reported in the media showing Obama with this supposedly big lead do so only because they weighted the poll to have a 6%-10% Democrat turnout advantage:
Do you want to know what the truth is? The truth is that the race in Ohio is a dead heat, and that’s why the media and the Obama campaign are working so hard to convince you not to contribute, volunteer and vote.
Don’t let them win! We ask that you please make a contribution to The Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama. You can contribute as little as $5 up to the maximum allowed contribution of $5,000. Please, contribute online – HERE.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Poll Watch: Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2012 Presidential Survey Barack Obama 52% Mitt Romney 43% D+9Party registration: Democrat; 50% Republican 37% D+132008 Pennsylvania EXIT POLL PARTY ID Democrat 44%) Republican (37%) D+7http://www.cbsnews.com/election2010/exit.shtml?state=PA&race=G&jurisdiction=0&tag=contentBody;govDataDisplay2010 Pennsylvania EXIT POLL PARTY ID Democrat 40%) Republican (37%) D+32012 Pennsylvania GALLUP PARTY ID ( adults ) Democrat 46%) Republican (51%) D+5